After a bumpy ride yesterday with severe weather threats across the area, we’ll be experiencing some nice fall weather before additional rain chances arrive this weekend as some of the “moisture” from Tropical Storm Sergio moves across the state. Heavy rainfall will be possible sometime either Saturday afternoon or early Sunday morning. A surface low is likely to develop across the Red River and will move eastward through the weekend. This should keep most of northern Oklahoma on the cool side of the system while locations along the Red River into southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas may a little closer to the warm sector. Another surface front will move across the state Sunday keeping the cooler fall like weather in place across eastern Oklahoma. Before this occurs, a fast-moving system will move across Kansas Friday and may bring us a few spotty showers across northern Oklahoma.
The main upper level system responsible for the active weather yesterday is now ejecting into the northern plains and the Midwest while the surface front is finally exiting far southeastern OK early this morning. Any additional clouds will quickly erode. Sunshine and northwest winds will be expected today and should bring our highs down into the 60s for the afternoon. Clear sky and light winds will create chilly weather Thursday morning with lows in the upper 30s north of the metro and lower 40s elsewhere. Daytime highs Thursday are likely to stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s with north winds and sunshine as a quick surface ridge of high pressure moves across northern Oklahoma.
Friday the fast-moving system across Kansas will bring additional clouds that would keep our highs in the upper 50s near 60 and may brush the state with a few showers. I may need to increase the pops slightly for Friday based on some of the incoming model data this morning. Even if this does occur, precip amounts would be very light.
This weekend looked solid for the past few days in the data. This morning it’s throwing a knuckle ball at us. The EURO and GFS were close in the timing of the system even though both sets had some differences in the surface features. This morning the GFS continues to paint the precip for mostly Saturday afternoon and evening while the EURO has slowed to almost a full day later. The Euro would have the highest chances Sunday morning. At this point, I’m inclined to continue with our current forecast of the highest chances centered upon Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional changes may still be possible for this weekend.
Another front will move across the state Sunday behind our departing system and should bring another chilly day for northeastern Oklahoma. Temps Sunday could start in the upper 50s and drop into the lower 50s through the afternoon with stout north winds. If the clouds can clear out fast enough Monday morning, we could see some widespread 30-degree readings across northeastern Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.