Our main cold front will continue moving slowly across the state today, from the west to east, with scattered thunderstorms possible ahead of the boundary. While showers or storms will be likely this morning through midday, additional storms are also likely by midday and possibly into the evening. By 2 am Wednesday, the cold front will be exiting extreme eastern Oklahoma into yesterday Arkansas taking the threat of strong to severe storms out of the area. Fall like weather conditions will return Wednesday and Thursday across the state with morning lows in the 40s and 50s along with daytime highs in the 60s. Another system may be influencing the state this weekend with rain chances. Another strong looking front is expected to arrive Sunday or Monday and reinforce the fall weather early next week.
The upper level pattern is characterized by an elongated trough across the west and a ridge to our east. This trough is finally ejecting into the central plains today after sending several disturbances across the southern plains, including Oklahoma for the past few days. Storms are ongoing this morning in a warm air regime across eastern Oklahoma. Additional storms are ongoing across part of western Oklahoma and Texas. The timing is complicated today due to the messy and already wet pattern evolving across the state. While storms this morning will mostly be heavy rainfall producers, it’s not impossible for a gradual uptick in intensity through mid morning. Additionally, some of the storms moving out of southwestern Oklahoma could also gain strength through midday accelerating out of the Arbuckle into part of east central Oklahoma. Basically, the severe threats may be increasing around midday into the evening, yet the greatest potential may also remain across the southeastern quadrant of our area.
The upper air flow later tonight will mostly remain parallel or slightly veered to the boundary which would support a mostly squall line type event for the evening if the atmosphere can recover sufficiently from morning and midday storms. Later this afternoon and tonight, the surface winds may back into the squall line and act to enhance local inflow with a few embedded super cells. This means embedded tornadoes along the line, while a low possibility, can’t be totally ruled out. The main threats, however, will remain damaging thunderstorm winds and heavy rainfall. Some hail would be possible in a few cells.
Once the upper trough ejects and the surface front clears our immediate area, dry and stable air will spill into the state along with north winds and improving weather. After hitting highs again yesterday in the mid-80s, we’ll expect another good taste of fall weather returning that may stick around for a while. The data suggests morning lows Wednesday will start in the 40s and 50s with highs in the mid-60s. Thursday morning should be even lower along with clear sky, dry air and light winds allowing morning lows in the 40s. Thursday afternoon highs will remain below the seasonal average with highs in the lower 60 and plenty of sunshine.
Friday into Saturday presents another chance for some active weather returning into the state. The pacific hurricane Sergio may spread moisture into the southwestern U.S. Friday while becoming entwined with a developing storm system across the state. The GFS and EURO differ greatly on the placement of some important surface features. Both models have the potential for widespread rain resulting in a Saturday evening washout. This part of the forecast will more than likely go through a few changes before locking into a confident solution. At this point, we have sided increased the chances to a likely category for Saturday evening. Sunday may also present some precip. Another strong front is likely to move across the state Sunday keeping the fall air into a few days next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. Remain aware of your weather surroundings today and tonight.