A fast moving, compact shortwave across the northern U.S. will help drive a surface front southward tonight before stalling across southern Kansas Thursday morning. This feature will be close enough to bring a few showers or storms across southern Kansas and possibly northern Oklahoma late tonight through Thursday morning. This boundary will lift northward as pressure falls occur to our west Friday with the next wave moving on-board and into the inter mountain region. This pattern of a sloshing boundary will keep our rain and storm chances in the forecast this weekend through several days next week. The data continue to change regarding the exact evolution of the main frontal passage next week, but this weekend the boundary could pass the metro for a while Saturday before retreating northward Sunday. Our air mass will remain basically the same for the foreseeable future with a rich low-level moisture content across eastern Oklahoma. These means some “on and off” precip chances for several days, beginning this weekend into next week.
We hit the upper 80s yesterday and we should be very close to 90 today. The pressure gradient is likely to increase by mid-morning with south to southwest winds from 20 to 30 mph. The fire danger will be elevated today due to the strong winds. Thankfully humidity values will remain moderate this afternoon. And our vegetation is mostly green across most of the area. But some decaying fuels are located north of the metro and northwest of the I-44 corridor. We should have more sunshine today in the mix compared to the previous days this week.
Temps will remain very warm through Friday before being controlled by rain-cooled boundaries with some minor cooler air behind the first intrusion of the front Saturday across far northern Oklahoma. It’s worth noting the EURO doesn’t bring this front across northeast Oklahoma while making a brief appearance into northwestern sections Saturday into Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday of next week will remain unsettled. A mostly meridional flow will bring rain chances from the west to the east slowly next week. Yet several days will need rain chances for the forecast. The timing will be modified several times between now and early next week, but thunderstorms will become increasingly likely as the main boundary moves closer to our area. A few severe storms will be possible along with some heavy rainfall threats.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.