Our upper air pattern across the country will transition this week allowing a frontal boundary to approach the southern plains Thursday or Friday. This boundary will stall across southern Kansas before lifting northward Friday and then again making a run at the northern part of the state this weekend into early next week.
While the data may continue to support some small daily changes in the forecast for the next few days, the impact on the sensible weather will remain minor. We’ll basically be dealing with warm and humid weather this week.
A small mid-level disturbance currently across part of Texas will lift northeast today into Tuesday with a slight chance for a few showers or storms across eastern OK or western Arkansas. The chances will remain low, but not zero for a few isolated showers across eastern OK. These types of pops are usually handled with just ISO mentions on the big planner.
Our current pattern will support morning to midday clouds with some sunny conditions by the 2nd half of the day. This will have a minor impact on the temp trend but should not hinder most afternoon maxes from reaching the mid to upper 80s this week.
Winds may also increase some by the middle of the week with pressure falls to our northwest. Gusty south winds from 15 to 25 mph will be likely Wednesday and possibly Friday.
If not for the increase in low level moisture, the fire danger would be increasing this week. We may still have a few spots that would be problematic. Thankfully we’re currently still very green across eastern OK.
The boundary will eventually move southward with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across eastern OK this weekend into early next week. Both sets of data (GFS and EURO) support an increasingly stronger southwest flow this weekend with a low developing across the Rockies. A jet streak will round the base of the low sometime this weekend and eject into the central plains either Monday or Tuesday of next week. This will eventually shove the front southward with an air mass change around Tuesday of next week.
It’s a low confidence forecast on the specifics, but the pattern recognition supports a decent chance of showers and storms nearing the area this weekend into early next week. If I am correct on this pattern assumption, active weather is not too far away.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.