Our next front will be moving across the area later this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for a few thunderstorms followed by some areas of scattered rain showers Wednesday and cooler weather. Daytime highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s while tomorrows highs may remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will gradually warm into the 80s by the end of the week while another front will be staging near southern Kansas. The data is not consistent with our weekend storm chances. We've continued to keep only low chances for a few storms this weekend while also keeping the main synoptic boundary north of the state. The last two runs of the EURO do bring the front southward by Friday evening.
The main upper level flow will continue to be rather zonal for the next few days but a trough moving across the central to northern plains today into Wednesday will have enough influence to help drive a surface front southward tomorrow evening. The main dynamic energy should remain removed from the state. Severe weather is unlikely and not expected for our immediate region. A few storms may develop on the leading edge of the front this afternoon between 4 pm and 9 pm but would quickly become post frontal as the boundary surges southward. Wednesday morning the boundary will remain south of the area but the tail end of the above mentioned upper trough will remain to our northwest for most of the day before clearing the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. This means we'll need to continue with some probability for rain chances Wednesday. The clouds along with northeast winds will keep us rather fall-like for the day.
Later this week, south winds will return with increasing moisture and warmth across the state. The consensus data has suggested the next front will remain north of the state this weekend. A few model runs do bring the front southward while other runs also develop some thunderstorm activity across the state, including eastern Oklahoma this weekend. We'll keep the low chances currently in our forecast with highs in the lower 80s. Some changes to the Friday and weekend forecast as still likely.
The upper air pattern is expected to amplify next week with more active weather for the state during the next two weeks.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.