A weak mid-level low across northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma will eject across northwestern Arkansas today with a chance for a few scattered showers or storms across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The chances will remain very low but there will be a few scattered storms with this process. This morning, most of the activity has been near the Ft. Smith region. We’ll keep a low mention for a few isolated showers across eastern Oklahoma today.
Temps this morning will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s and will move back into the upper 70s or possibly the lower 80s this afternoon along with mostly to partly cloudy sky and south winds returning around 5 to 7 mph. We’re tracking at least two, possibly three fronts for the next 7 days. Temps will drop Wednesday behind a front, but most data support a warm and breezy air mass returning across the state Friday through the weekend with temperatures gradually warming back into the mid-80s. Another strong looking front will approach the state early next week.
The upper air flow will remain mostly zonal, or west to east, across the central plains. Yet a stout mid-level trough positioned across the central and northern Plains will help drive a surface front into the state either Tuesday night or sometime early Wednesday morning. Most of the upper level support will remain separated from the southern plains. This means the severe weather threats will remain low for the state.
Scattered showers and storms will remain possible along or ahead of the front Tuesday evening and behind the boundary Wednesday with north winds developing and temps leveling off in the upper 60s or lower 70s for daytime highs Wednesday after morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday morning the boundary will quickly either lift northward as a warm front or reform to our north across southern Kansas with gusty south winds and warmer weather enveloping the state into the weekend. The GFS brings a second front into the northern Oklahoma area late Friday night into Saturday morning with a few storms across northern Oklahoma. The EURO keeps this boundary northward with dry and breezy conditions. We’ll more than likely keep only low pops at this point for the weekend at best with the breezy and warm weather remaining.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.