We’re tracking two systems that will bring rain and thunderstorm activity into our area. The first arrives Friday into Saturday and the 2nd for the middle of next week. Before this occurs, another hot and humid day is likely today with highs in the mid-90s. Heat index values will be nearing the 100 to 103 areas today and tomorrow with morning lows in the mid to upper-70s.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure is currently centered across the eastern third of the state but will begin moving eastward later tonight into Thursday. We’ll keep the hot and humid weather Thursday, before a weak mid-level trough will be approaching the central plains bringing a surface front across northwestern Oklahoma Thursday night and entering our area sometime Friday. Copious amounts of low to mid-level moisture will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across the state during these periods, with pockets of heavy rainfall possible in some locations. Local drainage issues may occur in some spots and a flood watch may be posted for a few locations. The overall weak shear and wind fields should limit the threat of severe storms Friday. The increasing cloud cover and rain cooled air will take our temps down into the 70s Saturday and possibly Sunday.
The changes this morning in the data for this first system involve the timing and positioning of the boundary. The EURO has now trended more southward with the initial surface boundary compared to previous days and supports the main synoptic front passing the metro region sometime Friday afternoon. This timing change has resulted in a higher precip coverage for Friday compared to previous updates. This timing may still change but for now, we’ll keep higher chances Friday into Saturday. Sunday is still up for grabs in the data at this point. We currently have relatively low pops (after Sunday morning) but may need to increase these for at least southeastern Oklahoma.
Next week we’re looking at a possible pattern change that should bring the first real taste of fall weather back to the state. A mid-level trough is expected to develop across western Canada and move eastward across the Prairie Provinces Tuesday and extending into the central U.S. As this occurs, the upper air flow will transition and allow a surge of cool and dry Canadian air to move southward into the Nation Tuesday through Thursday. As this front nears the state Tuesday night into Wednesday, rain and storms will be likely along the boundary with the threat of a few strong to severe storms. Following the frontal passage, much drier air will arrive with dew point temps in the 40s and 50s lasting well into later next week.
Our temps Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower to even a few mid-80s but will drop behind the front with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s Wednesday through Friday. Fall weather is around the corner.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.