The current active weather pattern will soon transition into a calmer and drier pattern for the second half of the weekend into most of next week. But additional rain chances will remain again today and for part of early tomorrow morning before dry air arrives with pleasant weather Sunday. The old Gordon circulation (currently Tropical Depression Gordon) will be in southern to western Arkansas today before exiting into southwestern Missouri Saturday morning. A surface front will also be moving across the state later tonight and clearing the area Saturday as a short-wave trough ejects from the Rockies into the central plains. Most data support dew points in the upper 50s surging southward allowing for pleasant and seasonably cool weather Sunday into Monday before gradually warming by the middle to end of next week.
The circulation around the tropical system, hereafter referred to as the low, will bring at least one or two bands of precip near the region today. This morning the higher chances for downpours should be removed from the metro for the early morning hours. If all goes as planned, we’ll have a dry commute in the metro with most of the active weather centered around the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma with some spotty showers across southwestern Missouri into NW Arkansas.
By midday to afternoon, showers should develop closer to the low and eastward into Arkansas. But the flow around the low will help to develop activity near the I-44 corridor that will gradually move east while the individual cells across far eastern Oklahoma should move southwest. This activity will remain sub severe but may produce heavy downpours and possibly some small hail in the stronger cores. The threat for significant or flooding rains should remain across extreme southeastern Kansas, southern Missouri and part of northwestern Arkansas. Yet the track of the low has continued to shift slightly east with each subsequent run. While flood watches are posted for part of Missouri and central Arkansas, no watches are currently posted for NW Arkansas and probably will not be issued under the current data. Three to four days ago, data was suggesting some 4 to 5-inch rainfall across NW Arkansas but yesterday and today's data support some 1 to 2-inch today's for tomorrow and Saturday.
As the low ejects into the Missouri Valley Saturday morning, some spotty showers are likely to occur along the back side of the departing system across eastern OK. It’s unclear how long this may last, but we’re currently only keeping low pops for the first few hours of Saturday morning before this activity should wane. The clouds will linger for most of the day and will keep the highs into the mid to upper 70s along with north winds around 10 to 15 mph. If the showers end on schedule, Saturday should end up being an early taste of fall like weather regarding the temps. I need to stress that some spotty showers could linger longer than our current forecast.
Sunday morning lows will be in the lower 60s in the metro with afternoon highs around 75 to 80. We’re counting on some clouds for the early morning hours, but if we do get more clearing than anticipated, morning temps would drop into the mid to upper 50s due to the available dry air advecting into the area. If the clouds linger longer than expected, the Sunday highs could stay in the lower 70s!
Monday into Thursday appears pleasant and uneventful for the region before another possible easterly type wave may influence our weather late next week into the weekend with some spotty showers or storms.
If you’re heading to a Friday night football game, I’ll encourage you to keep the rain gear handy, but the higher chances after kick-off appears to be across the extreme eastern sections of the state, along or east of Highway 69.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.