Heat advisories and possibly heat warnings will top the headlines for the next few days across Oklahoma including the Tulsa metro and vicinity. Finally, the mid-level ridge of high pressure has expanded to the northeast and now influences most of the state. This will bring hot conditions today with triple digit highs likely for many locations. A few spots across extreme northeast and far eastern Oklahoma will top-out in the upper 90s. Southwestern Oklahoma will see extremely hot weather today with daytime highs ranging from 105 to 112 as dry air will be more prevalent in these areas. Our local dew points will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across northeast Oklahoma today prompting another round of heat advisories with THI values from 105 to 112. Friday a weak pre-frontal surface trough will move across northeastern Oklahoma by midday to afternoon and is projected to advect (move horizontally) lower dew point temps into our area. The result will be much hotter weather Friday with local temps ranging from 102 to 109 across northeast Oklahoma. Because of the lower dew points, the THI values Friday will not be significantly higher than the actual temps. But because the temps will be much higher, many of these readings could qualify for heat warnings across northeast Oklahoma Friday.
Just as quickly as the ridge is expanding northeast today, it will retrograde (move westward) quickly Friday into the weekend. This will, once again create a small northwest flow pattern that may brush northeastern Oklahoma. I will not include any big pops at this point, but this pattern can bring surprises into the area quickly. I’ll try to communicate a very low chance for a few showers or storms later tonight and late Friday night into Saturday morning for a few hours. The odds appear very low. If the strength the ridge is correct in the EURO, the chance is zero.
As the center of the ridge moves well west Friday into Saturday, the main impact will be a surface boundary (cold front) to move across Green Country Saturday and probably stall to our south near the Red River by the afternoon. The oddity with this boundary will be slightly not as hot air (highs in the mid to upper 90s near 100) but the moisture (higher dew points ) will pool on the north side of the front and arrive during the day Saturday. Once again, you’ll feel the impact of the humidity and THI values will shoot back up to 105 to 110. Another heat advisory seems likely to me despite this front moving near the area.
Sunday into Monday the boundary may waffle northward for a day or two with heat and humidity being the main issues. But another pattern change is likely to occur for the middle of next week., And in my opinion, it’s rather odd. The mid-level ridge will be positioned well west of the state with the center across the Southwestern U.S. while a major upper level trough (cold air aloft) will range from the Hudson Bay region into the upper Midwest. This will bring unusually cool weather across the Great Lakes into the Midwest and northeastern U.S. while the southwestern and western U.S. will crank up the heat. The southern plains, more so the great state of Oklahoma will be in between these two features. This means we’ll be in the running for some northerly flow disturbances and temps that may end up near or even slightly below normal for the middle to end of the week. This pattern change will eventually bring some active weather back to the state.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. Stay hydrated. And have a super great day!