A Final Round of Storms, Then More Oppressive Heat

The recent rainfall has been a huge blessing to Green Country… keeping it green a bit longer into the summer. Some places have seen nearly 3” of rain in the past several days, but it certainly varies from location to location drastically. The map below tells that story. If you have been among the “have nots,” you’ve got one more round of rain to potentially soak your soil before the summer furnace takes hold again.

[img]

We are in a “Northwesterly Flow” pattern, which allows a conveyer belt of storm systems to slide down our way… from the northwest, and lead to some periodically heavy bouts of rain, wind and storms. The final wave will sweep past the area on Wednesday, bringing one more round of wet weather. Up to an inch of rain may fall in some lucky backyards, but most will just see a smattering of rain before it wraps up. Below is a timeline of the rain chances. At the heaviest, some locally strong winds may accompany some of the storms early Wednesday morning.

[img]

A few storms may start to flare up in the afternoon heating, but a CAP (warm air aloft suppressing storm and cloud development) created by the expanding heat ridge likely wins out for most locations. That takes us to the REST of the forecast. Dangerous heat is already building over parts of the state. Southwest Oklahoma reached highs up to 107° on Tuesday. This type of heat overriding a recently-soaked landscape will lead to soaring heat index values. By Thursday afternoon, with full sunshine, it may feel like 110°. Yuck! Thursday may also be the official first triple-digit day of 2018. (We have hit 99° four separate times so far this year, however).

[img]

We’ll find ourselves on the eastern periphery of this high pressure heat ridge, which might put us in line to a see a weak cold front by early next week. Our computer models disagree on the strength of this ridge into the following week, however. Often times, they tease us into thinking relief is on the way when it underplays seasonal tendencies to keep the heat in place this far south.  That means we could be in for up to a week of temperatures near 100°. By late July, this is rather common. We are just a few weeks out from our climatological hottest point in the year. Knowing that, we just must accept a certain amount of uncomfortably hot weather.

[img]

At least into the weekend, our recently-added moisture to our environment will play into daily, dangerous heat index values. It just goes to show that summer rainfall is a double-edged sword. Beyond the weekend, we might actually start to dry out enough to take the edge off the heat. Above, you’ll see our forecast heat index trend.

In the long range, there are signs of relief. The heat ridge will get further suppressed to the Southwest, allowing for some refreshing air to return late in the month. The Outlook through the final day of July shows a greater likelihood for below-average temperatures and above-normal rainfall. So hang in there!  If you hate the heat, you might get a midsummer break.

[img]

Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my Facebook Page for more weather updates!