The scattered thunderstorm chances will remain for the next few days with numerous outflow boundaries expected across northern Oklahoma. Additionally, a few disturbances are expected to arrive from the northwest that could enhance some activity occasionally. Finally, a weak front will eventually move across the area that may also bring a few storms. Despite these storm chances, our concern for heat and humidity will remain with THI values nearing or exceeding heat advisory criteria in some but not all locations. Locations east and southeast of the metro seem to be in the more favorable position for higher heat index values that would fit into the advisory levels today but the metro will be right on the bubble. Tuesday and Wednesday the advisories would be expected over a larger area despite the potential for scattered storms.
Scattered storms are up and running this morning on an axis running across the metro into east-central Oklahoma. These storms will slowly diminish over the next few hours with most activity also shifting to the east or southeast. By later this afternoon and evening additional scattered storms will occur in a few locations. We may also have another later night and pre-dawn increase for some locations.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure will expand back across part of the state Tuesday into Wednesday and bring some heat back into Oklahoma. The position of the ridge, in most data, would keep a window of northwest flow atop the northeastern third of the area. This means we’ll need to keep a storm chance in the forecast Wednesday for part of northeast Oklahoma while the southern portion of the area could see soaring temps and humidity. Once again we’ll need to place some 100s on the map for the middle due to the persistence of the data and the normal climatology for this time of year.
The data also suggest the ridge will retrograde (move west) later this week allowing a front to move across part of the area. This does not appear to be an air mass changer or a temp changing pattern of any significance for most of the area. The hot and humid weather will continue even through there will be some daily variations regarding exactly how hot and humid.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.