At least one, possibly two small disturbances will move east to west (easterly waves) across the state today through Wednesday with a chance for scattered showers and storms across part of eastern Oklahoma. The coverage is expected to remain sparse for most locations, but we’ll be tracking a few storms occasionally across the area.
This weekend was noticeably drier with dew points in the 50s-60s moving across northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday morning was the best part of the weekend with morning lows dropping into the lower to mid-60s. Just as quickly as the dry air moved into northeastern Oklahoma it will also be replaced with increasing moisture with local dew points surging back into the lower and mid 70s today through Wednesday. This will also bring the storm chances back to eastern Oklahoma for some locations. We’ll fashion our pops from 30% today to 20 Tuesday and isolated or 10% Wednesday. The threat for a few wet micro bursts will remain possible but the overall severe weather trend will remain quite low for the next few days. The mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to expand and eventually shut down the scattered storm chances while bringing the heat back into the region. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with heat index values nearing upper 90s near 100 range. These types of conditions will continue for the next 2 days before the temps and heat index will climb. We’ll be inching closer to the upper 90s by the middle to end of the week with THI values nearing 103 to 107 for some locations for the middle to end of the week. Heat advisories will be more of a possibility for the middle and end of the week for some locations but the overall confidence in the local dew point spread remains iffy at best this morning for these periods.
The GFS continues to offer some kind of a weak disturbance sliding under the H5 ridge by the end of the week keeping some daily storm chances in the forecast while the EURO counterpart is void of the precip. We’re siding with the EURO and climo and will keep the end of the forecast basically hot, humid and dry.
Both models bring another western trough near the region by the early to middle part of next week but differ on the timing and impact. The GFS brings another surface front across the area around the 16th and 17th while the EURO holds it back to the northwest and delays this feature until about the 19th of next week.
Until these attempts unfold next week, we’re looking at another week of a migrating-expanding mid-level ridge and the impacts of heat and humidity by the second half of the week. Just like last week, a few of the scattered storms may produce wet micro bursts upon collapse but the severe threats will remain low.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.