Despite the mid-level ridge still having some influence across Oklahoma today, a weak wind shift will move across the area today and bring a few more scattered showers and storms into northeastern and southeastern Oklahoma. We’ve been tracking a few spotty thunderstorms early this morning but most of these will be gone by the time the discussion is posted. We still will keep a low pop for the early morning hours.
After the morning to midday hours, the higher likelihood will be across the southeastern quadrant of the region from approximately 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. I like the depiction of the 3K WRF today and will discount the R3 runs, which crank up storms this morning across northeast Oklahoma. The HR3 typically doesn’t do well in weakly sheared environments. I’ll keep a slight chance this morning as a placeholder and see how it works. The threat for severe weather today will remain isolated and low. The main threats in this type of atmosphere is torrential rainfall along with one or two storms depositing a wet micro burst and some hail.
Highs today will still top out in the lower to mid-90s with heat index numbers around 100 to 104, yet northeast winds will eventually bring dry air into the region by Saturday afternoon and evening setting the stage for some pleasant conditions through Sunday. Saturday morning lows will remain in the lower 70s with dew points also in the lower 70s. Any leftover showers or storms early Saturday morning will be focused along the Red River Valley and possibly across northwestern Oklahoma. Basically, we should be dry Saturday morning across northeastern Oklahoma and remain that way until early next week.
Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the lower 90s but the dry air (true front) will allow the temps to drop Sunday morning into the upper 50s and lower 60s near and northeast of the Grand Lake region with the metro nearing the mid-60s. The highs Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with sunshine and pleasant weather.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure will begin migrating eastward again early next week and may eventually have two distinct centers. One will remain near and east of the metro keeping some active weather on the front side of the ridge with some deeper moisture advecting from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma early next week. The issue will revolve the timing and exactly how far northward this area of deeper moisture will move.
For this forecast update, the north winds will quickly erode with southeast winds returning Sunday evening into early next week with additional shower and thunderstorm chances quickly returning across southeastern and extreme eastern Oklahoma during these periods. The chances for the metro region will remain relatively low early next week. We’ll need to ponder adding a chance for a few showers and storms for southeastern Oklahoma Sunday night. After our system moves across the area today, the pops will start back up Monday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning discussion and blog.