Another toasty and stifling afternoon is expected with highs in the upper 90s and index values around 105 to 110. Winds will be from the south to southwest from 10 to 20 mph along with abundant sunshine and very little cloud cover as a mid-level ridge of high pressure remains the dominate weather feature. This ridge is projected to move eastward by this weekend allowing a weak southwest flow to bring a trough near the plains and a surface front near the state this weekend with a slight chance for a few showers or storms during the period.
Most data support this chance remaining low but we’ll probably see a slightly better chance for extreme northeastern Oklahoma for Sunday. We’re staying low at this point with 20s on the board. Next week the ridge may get stronger but also move more westward with the center across the Rockies. This may allow an easterly type wave to move near the state by midweek with a deep fetch of moisture. This would result in a few scattered showers or storms July 4th along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line but I’m inclined to keep this mention off the big 7-day panel until our confidence in this solution increases. There is also a chance the ridge will remain strong enough across the state to steer this plume southward across Texas.
Basically, we’re increasing the high today about 1 to 2 degrees from yesterday and keeping the heat index in the advisory levels today. We may see some reductions in temps/local dews Friday but some spots will remain close to advisory criteria again Friday. It’s unclear if advisories will be needed Friday but we should be out of the criteria for the weekend. As stated here many times over the past month, the green vegetation pumps moisture back into the boundary layer which keeps our highs slightly down from reaching the normal potential when looking at the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Eventually this process will stop and the temp will respond. Will that be today? Probably not. But if it does, we’ll hit 100 in the metro. For now, we’re sticking with a high of 99 for Tulsa.
The rest of the forecast will fluctuate with morning lows in the 70s and highs in the mid-90s to upper 90s.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.