We’ve been dealing with the chance for some storms near and west of the metro for the last couple of hours and its appears the window for this development is quickly fading. The loosely organized storm complex that moved across north Texas and far southern Oklahoma yesterday afternoon and evening disrupted the southerly return flow into northwest Oklahoma last night and this hindered the storm development. We did have a few scattered showers and storms last night, but mostly in a very narrow channel across the I-35 region from central into south-central Oklahoma. There will remain a very low chance for a few showers or storms to bubble-up across the northeast quadrant but it’s highly unlikely anything would be significant and this chance will diminish rapidly during the morning hours. So, While I’ll need to keep a low chance for the next few hours, I would assume the only true window will continue to be for extreme southern Oklahoma and north Texas for the morning hours. Later today, storms will be more numerous across the high plains of Texas into the panhandle and may brush far western Oklahoma later tonight.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure, still mostly centered across the Mexican Plateau is now slowly expanding northward and will eventually move closer to the state by the end of the week into the weekend. Until this happens, we’re still in the running for at least one more possible brush with a storm complex for Wednesday night and Thursday morning across southern Kansas and possibly extreme northern Oklahoma before the northwest flow highway begins to flatten out. The ridge is slightly stronger and more northward in the NAM and EURO compared to the GFS for Thursday into the weekend. Consequently, there are more small pops in the GFS scattered across the board for this period. We could have a 10 to 20% pop from Thursday through early next week if using the GFS only. But I’ll more than likely defer to the stronger ridge solution for this period and keep any mentions to isolated in nature.
There also remain a big difference in the low-level moisture field for the end of the week with the EURO almost 10 degrees lower in the dew point field compared to the GFS. This would be a big difference maker regarding our max temp forecast and the impact of the temperature heat index values during this period. As stated yesterday, I think I’ll stick to a forecast compromise blend until a straighter forward picture emerges.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.