The mid-level ridge of high pressure is located across Mexico this morning and will remain to the southwest of the state for the next 48 to 60 hours. This will create a northwest flow on the periphery of the ridge allowing at least one and possibly two disturbances to move near the area in the next few days. A surface ridge of high pressure is located northeast of the state this morning and has provided some nice weather yesterday that should continue for most of the today before the south winds return tonight into Tuesday with a gradual return of low level moisture into the middle and end of the week. Highs today will remain in the mid to upper 80s with east winds this morning and possibly southeast winds later tonight with a chance for a few showers or storms nearing the area later this afternoon or early evening.
The higher chance will arrive later tonight into pre-dawn as another MSC develops and rolls across western and central Oklahoma into southern Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday morning. This will be a close call for the metro region but most data support this complex remaining to our west and south. Thus, the higher chances will remain to the southwest and south of the Tulsa metro during this period. But the exact trajectory is still up for grabs the confidence on the current placement is not exactly high. Translation: some late hour storm adjustments are possible later today into tonight. Check back often during the day for updates. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat.
The mid-level ridge over Mexico will begin to expand Wednesday and Thursday with the EURO bringing the ridge closer to the state Friday and Saturday. Before this happens, there may be another disturbance that could brush the top side of this feature Thursday with storms approaching the Oklahoma-Kansas state line region Thursday morning to midday before giving up. I’m unsure if I’ll keep this low pop on the map or give it another day or two in the microwave to see what happens.
There remain some notable differences regarding the amount of low level moisture return when comparing the GFS and EURO. Yesterday dew points were a good 10F separated in the model for the middle to the end of the week. The result was much higher max temps in the EURO and much higher heat index value possibilities in the GFS. Today the max temps have trended closer together for the end of the week yet the local dews are still higher in the GFS vs the EURO. I’ve decided to make a blend of the two for the middle to the end of the week. What does this mean? THI values will be nearing the 100 to 105 range Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and morning lows in the 70s. The odds of any real triple digits continue to seem low to me due to the green vegetation and role of evapo-transpiration. At least for the next week or so.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.