What a busy morning! A severe complex of storms will continue rolling across northern Oklahoma this morning capable of producing damaging winds from 60 to 70 mph in a few spots along with very heavy rainfall and some hail. This stout complex will begin weakening soon as it crosses the Highway 69 region but will continue to offer some threats.
Later tonight a few storms will develop across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri and could briefly impact far northeastern OK later this evening into pre-dawn Friday, yet the odds will remain low. Temps will climb today back into the lower 90s range with a heat index value around 101 to 103. A cold front will enter the region Saturday afternoon or evening bringing some minor relief Sunday with highs dropping into the upper 80s. But before this boundary arrives, the heat index values are expected to surge with numbers in the 105 to 110 range Friday and around 101 to 106 Saturday. This will more than likely prompt heat advisories for the eastern third of the state for at least Friday and possibly for some locations Saturday.
Daytime highs Friday will top out in the upper 90s with Saturday offering the best chance at the real deal triple digits with a veering component to the surface wind during the afternoon. This may briefly bring us to these temp levels. But the recent green-up combined with the expected tropical like moisture will offset the potential temp trends for Friday and Saturday. The data this morning has reverted to a faster and not slower frontal intrusion during the day Saturday with the boundary moving across the metro around 1pm to 3pm. This may be fast enough to keep us from slightly over 100, but it may be close. THI values across the southeastern sections of the state Saturday afternoon will be higher and may prompt the heat advisory for these spots. Regardless, it’s going to feel extremely uncomfortable due to the heat index.
The mid-level ridge may flatten and change shape slightly early next week allowing a small window for a minor northwest flow signal Tuesday. This will be represented by a small pop on the 7 day for this period. The EURO suggests the ridge will center up across most of the state by the middle to end of next week which will shut off the precip chances and crank those highs back into the upper 90s or even some brushes with triple digits.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.