A few scattered showers or storms may return to far southern or east central Oklahoma today with highs moving back into the mid to upper 80 along with south winds around 10 mph. We’re more than likely dry again today across the northeastern quadrant of the state (aka Tulsa) with highs nearing the upper 80s for the Tulsa metro. This morning some patchy fog is possible, even likely in some of the valley locations of eastern Oklahoma.
A weak upper level trough is positioned across the western U.S. will spread a few small areas of lift across the state both Wednesday and Thursday with the main impacts from this feature well west. More importantly, a small disturbance is positioned to our southeast today that should gradually move northward over the next 36 hours and interact with our abundant low-level moisture. This also should result in some scattered showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma, and possibly the metro region Wednesday into Thursday. Due to the uncharacteristically weak flow aloft, our pattern will look more like early June than mid to late May. This means mostly late afternoon to early evening storm chances, due to the weak flow and influence of daytime heating and local terrain effects of far east-central Oklahoma. The severe weather threats are very low but some collapsing strong outflows are possible. Most, but not all the scattered storms that do manage to develop Wednesday and Thursday will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. By Thursday into Friday, the upper air pattern is expected to change again, reverting to a quasi-northwesterly flow pattern across the central and southern plains. This pattern may bring a storm complex or two near the state Friday through the weekend with a surface front nearing northern Oklahoma early next week yet the mid-level riding should nudge nearer the state. The extended holiday weekend, from Sunday into Monday appears mostly warm and muggy.
Some, but not all data is suggesting a low-pressure area may develop across the southern Gulf region over the next few days while moving northward. The data is widely varied with the outcome of this feature with some data bringing the low near the southern Louisiana region Monday. If this is the case, this feature should mostly remain to our southeast this weekend into early next week. But it’s something to watch.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.