Active weather has been confined to the western Oklahoma region overnight with these showers and storms diving southeast in the upper air flow. Another MCS is located well northwest across part of Nebraska this morning. The upper flow is not strong enough to bring this MCS into the area this morning. Regarding the western Oklahoma activity, most of this activity will remain well southwest of our area this morning.
There remains a very low, outside chance, for a few isolated showers or storms to develop near our area during the day as rich low-level moisture continues to reside across eastern Oklahoma with some rouge lifting sliding across eastern Oklahoma. Highs today will climb back into the upper 80s with south winds developing by midday to afternoon. Additional storms will be likely this afternoon and evening to our west where severe weather will be likely today across the western third of the state. Later tonight, a few of these weakening storms may brush the north central Oklahoma region and scoot across far northeast Oklahoma or southeastern Kansas around or slightly after the midnight hour into pre-dawn Saturday. Severe weather threats are not zero but would be very low and mostly confined slightly northwest of our main area of interest.
The main western U.S. trough will continue to eject to the east-northeast Saturday while strong winds round the basal portion of the system developing storms along a weak frontal boundary positioned across part of Kansas into northern OK Saturday afternoon and evening. The most favorable locations for storms, including severe weather will remain across Kansas. But a few severe storms will be possible along the slowly moving boundary Saturday evening across part of northern Oklahoma. The upper air flow appears unfavorable to slam this front all the way across the state Saturday late into Sunday morning. While the GFS stalls this boundary to our northwest, the EURO does bring the wind shift through the Tulsa metro Sunday morning for a few hours. We’ll offer a compromise solution but plan to keep Sunday still in the 80s. Any storms late Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday morning may be rowdy with some hail and wind threats along with some pockets of heavy rainfall. But I would tend to keep this pop still relatively low with higher chances along or northwest of the I-44 region.
Early next week the pattern basically does a rinse and repeat with another western U.S. trough establishing while sending waves of lift across the southern and central plains while weakening as the week progresses. The pattern will remain slightly messy with almost daily chances for showers and storms for some but not all locations. Temps will also remain above the seasonal average along with abundant low-level moisture remaining in place across eastern OK.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great weekend!