Our first wave of thunderstorm activity moved across the metro late last night with severe warnings for some spots. Additional showers and storms will continue to develop across south central Oklahoma and move northeast early this morning with a rather broad coverage across the eastern third of the state. A few strong to severe storms may still be possible early this morning with wind and hail the main threats. This batch should exit eastern sections by late morning. The potential for afternoon and early evening storms will remain with the threat of additional severe thunderstorm activity for some, but not all portions of eastern Oklahoma. The exact threat will depend upon if the atmosphere can recover with enough instability later today as the dry line begins moving eastward and the main upper level system begins ejecting to the northeast. Model point soundings continue to support the mention for a few storms later this afternoon across the eastern part of the state. The most likely scenario is for early morning storms to vacate the region by midday with some recovery likely for a narrow area of far eastern Oklahoma. The dry line will approach the I-35 corridor by late afternoon with the threat for additional scattered super cells to develop ahead of this feature.
The true cold front will begin moving southeast out of central Kansas and should enter northern Oklahoma around midnight. Any storms that develop later this afternoon and early evening would quickly move NE with all modes of severe weather possible. This window for severe weather will remain rather small, basically during the afternoon before storms should exit our areas of concern. As the cold front moves into northern Oklahoma after midnight, a narrow line of showers and thunder will be possible following the boundary as it moves through southeastern Oklahoma by 4 am. Severe weather is unlikely along the true cold front pre-dawn Friday, yet a few strong wind gusts over 50 mph along with some small hail would be possible. Dry air will quickly follow the frontal passage and would end the thunderstorm threats by pre-dawn Friday for most of the area. A few linger showers or storms will persist past the 7 am hour across extreme southeastern Oklahoma.
The rest of the weekend appears to be in good shape. A weak front may attempt to back door the area in a weak northwest flow pattern Sunday night, but the only impact would be slightly lower temps than currently advertised for Monday and Tuesday. There could be a small shower or two pre-dawn Monday across far northeast Oklahoma, but I’ll leave this low pop out of the forecast for now. Our next upper level system will be nearing the state by the middle of next week with some scattered thunderstorm threats.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
You are encouraged to remain aware of your weather surroundings until this system clears our region.