Our main item of interest continues to be the weekend storm system that will bring widespread rain and some thunder into the state. The upper level low driver is located near the 4 Corners region this morning and will eject eastward over Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening while weakening. A surface area of low pressure will be developing across Colorado and will drop to the southeast with time, moving across northern Texas Saturday evening and ejecting across the southern Arkansas or Louisiana region Sunday morning. While some thunder may be possible with elevated instability Saturday across part of the state, no severe storms will occur in our area with the severe weather threats positioned across part of Texas. Some pockets of moderate rainfall may occur in some, but not all locations across eastern Oklahoma, with the Tulsa metro in the running for 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall for the entire event. Even drought and fire ravaged areas of western Oklahoma should see some rainfall with this system. Temps tomorrow will more than likely cap-off around the mid-50s along with northeast winds near 10 to 15 mph for the day. The progressive nature of the ejecting low should quickly tapper off the precip Sunday morning early with morning lows in the upper 40s and daytime highs rebounding into the lower 60s. A small area of ridging will move into northeastern Oklahoma from southwestern Missouri Monday with a sun-cloud mix and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with another fast-moving front passing our area Tuesday afternoon or evening with only a small chance for a few showers or rumbles of thunder late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning for northeast Oklahoma.
The pattern late next week is unsettled at this point in most of the data but I think the last few runs of both the GFS and EURO are now in better agreement. A powerful upper level low will be located across the Pacific, off the west coast, and may become cut-off from the upper flow for a few days while sending small waves of instability around the base into to southwestern U.S. These minor impulses may bring a few scattered showers or storms near the southern plains late next week, but any pops would be relatively low. Sometime late next weekend or early next week, the low will become absorbed in the flow and begin moving into U.S.
Conditions today are expected to be very pleasant despite a few clouds across the area with morning lows in the 30s to 40s and daytime highs moving into the upper 60s. Southeast winds will develop around 10 to 20 mph by afternoon. Rain will develop tonight to our west and then begin spreading eastward into our area Saturday morning to midday. Typically, a large percentage of rain on the big 7-day planner doesn’t necessarily mean an all-day event. But in this case, this system may bring rainfall or wet conditions for much of Saturday for the metro, west and south. Far northeastern sections and areas along the state line of Arkansas could remain dry longer in the morning to midday before rainfall approaches by midday to early afternoon.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.