Another freeze warning is underway Monday morning across northeastern OK with many locations reporting lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. It appears we’ll quickly move out of freezing around 9AM with beautiful weather for the rest of the day along with sunshine and light winds - much lighter winds than we’ve been experiencing the past few days.
Highs will be in the lower to mid-60s and should present some very nice 5-star weather for the rest of the day. The pattern will remain active bringing two systems across the plains for the next 7 days, yet the first one will arrive and depart with no precipitation. The 2nd system is scheduled for either late Friday night or better yet, Saturday with a good chance of thunderstorms across the central and eastern third of the state.
The strong system Friday that brought thunderstorms to eastern OK also brought an exceptionally cold air mass into the central and southern plains for the weekend. This chilly air mass will quickly modify and be replaced with much warmer air over the next 36 hours as a warm front will arrive Tuesday morning with strong south winds and temps climbing into the upper 70s or lower 80s by the afternoon.
The dry air we are currently experiencing will moisten some, but most data support the deeper moisture remaining too far southeast of the state to impact the area ahead of the Tuesday night and Wednesday morning cold front. This means this system should move across the area with only temp and wind impacts.
The fire danger issues both days will be enhanced due to the strong winds and could be nearing Red Flag warning status Wednesday behind the departing system when combined with low humidity and the northwest wind. Current wind speeds in the data would not place us in the Red Flag warnings but this could still change later this week.
The next upper level system will develop and move close to the state later in the week with strong south winds developing Friday giving us the chance for a few showers or storm either late Friday, but much or more likely, Saturday morning to midday. The pattern would support severe weather, but the overall timing of the system may have some forecasting implications that will be determined later this week as the time draws near. Most data support a surface low positioned near Wichita Falls, TX moving eastward along the Red River.
This may limit any severe potential to locations south of the metro. We’ll continue to refine the data as the event draws closer.
The backside of the system may bring a few showers or storms across northeastern OK Sunday morning before exiting by midday. I’ll fashion my pops mostly for Saturday and will keep a low chance Sunday morning. A quick look at the QPF indicates some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall would be a possibility with this system Saturday.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog
Have a super great day!