Strong south winds will crank up across the state both today and tomorrow in advance of a strong upper level system that will bring thunderstorm chances into eastern Oklahoma Friday. A few of the storms may be strong to severe as this system moves across the state Friday. The combination of strong south winds and still relatively dry conditions will promote a very high fire spread condition today while increasing low level moisture may offset this danger slightly Thursday. Wind speeds will be approaching advisory criteria in some locations both today and tomorrow. Highs this afternoon will be moving into the upper 70s across eastern and lower 80s for the region tomorrow. Locations across far western Oklahoma (behind the dry line Thursday) may experience highs in the upper 90s. As the storm system clears the area Friday, chilly weather will once again flow into Oklahoma with weekend highs in the lower 50s. Sunday morning lows will be near freezing. Another fast-moving upper level low will be nearing the central plains Tuesday yet moisture will be lacking for most of this system. A stronger upper level system will near by the end of next week that should have abundant low-level moisture.
Early Friday morning scattered storms may develop across central to eastern Oklahoma as strong low-level jet moves across the Red River Valley into eastern Oklahoma. A few of these storms could produce some hail but the severe threat should be low as most storms are expected to remain elevated.
By the afternoon, the dry line will begin moving eastward and may cross the metro during the lat afternoon to early evening while continuing to force thunderstorm activity across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Some of these storms across far eastern Oklahoma will more than likely be severe with point soundings indicating all modes of severe weather a possibility.
The timing differences I mentioned yesterday regarding the dry line passage are not quite as problematic today. While the GFS continues to be faster, the EURO and NAM are very close with the dry line passage around 6 pm to 7 pm and clearing the state quickly through the evening hours. Strong northwest winds behind the boundary will bring much drier air into the area that will reside across eastern Oklahoma this weekend with cool weather this weekend. It’s possible we could have another minor freeze Sunday morning in some valley locations. The back side of the upper level trough may bring a few sprinkles or even flurries into far northeast Oklahoma or southwest Missouri late Saturday night into Sunday morning but this chance appears rather low. The next front would zip across the area next Tuesday but low-level moisture may not have time to recover into the area. Another strong looking system may be nearing the state by late next week that could have abundant moisture for storms.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.