Pleasant weather is anticipated today with midday to afternoon sunshine and highs in the lower 60s. A few clouds or even some patchy fog is possible this morning in some locations across eastern Oklahoma. Our temps are currently in the upper 30s and lower 40s with very light wind as a surface ridge of high pressure is located across northeastern Oklahoma. The ridge will slowly slide southeast today allowing winds to back from the south for late today into tonight but will remain around 10 mph or less for the day. We should experience a very pleasant yet somewhat cool weather day across the area today. Tomorrow will feature the warmest day we have seen in the past week and the warmest one we’ll have in the following week. A strong cold front arrives Saturday afternoon and evening with a chance for a few showers or storms followed by much colder weather. Easter Sunday will feature blustery and raw conditions with temps staying in the upper 30s or lower 40s for most of the area. Some light showers or drizzle will be possible. This front will quickly retreat Monday as a quasi-warm front with a slight chance for a few showers or storms before the front returns Tuesday with a chance for a few storms and another cool down into Wednesday.
The upper air pattern is very reminiscent of a mid-January pattern. The polar vortex or semi-permanent broad upper trough is located across Hudson Bay Canada with a strong northwest flow from the Yukon into the central U.S. A short-wave will dive down across southern Canada at the base of the trough helping to produce a surface low that will quickly move across the Midwest U.S. Saturday into Sunday. A chunk of cold air will break loose and migrate southward moving across the central Plains, the Midwest and the northeastern U.S. this weekend into early next week. Our part of the country will get a glancing blow of this colder air with the frontal passage Saturday afternoon into the evening. The cold air will be felt late Saturday into Sunday. This pattern reminds me of the McFarland signature usually seen with strong arctic air intrusions in January. The moisture ahead of the Saturday front appears to be limited in quality and depth, yet should be sufficient for a few showers or storms. Any strong to near severe storms will more than likely be confined to extreme southeastern Oklahoma or northeastern Texas. Before the actual front arrives, we may have a very small impulse in the upper flow that may produce a few Saturday sunrise showers across far northeast Oklahoma or southeast Kansas.
The upper flow Monday into Tuesday will bring a small disturbance out of the Rockies across the central plains allowing a fast development of a surface low Monday. This will effectively cause the Saturday front to retrograde or retreat northward by Monday with a few showers or storms and a return of some warmer readings by Tuesday morning as the surface low begins to deepen across southeastern Colorado or northwestern Oklahoma. This low will eventually move across the central plains Tuesday with the associated trailing cold front sweeping across eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening. While the upper air flow is not exceptionally strong, this pattern will be possible of producing severe weather if the deeper moisture can return. As of this morning, the better moisture appears to remain slightly east or southeast of the area. Temps Tuesday could be warming in the morning and colder again in the afternoon with a surface ridge building into the area Wednesday. Another stout looking front arrives at the end of next week with additional cold air possible into next weekend.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.