Good morning! Today will be a warm and windy spring day. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with south winds gusting near 25 mph. We'll have a mix of clouds and sun today but for the afternoon, we should be mostly sunny. The UV forecast today will be high today, despite the cloud cover so make sure to use sunscreen.
Fire danger is our main concern today and tomorrow. Strong winds, warm temperatures and dry fuels will result in fire spread rates of over 180 feet per minute. Moisture will slowly be moving back to the area. Humidity values will be above fire watch criteria, but it won't be high enough to combat the fire risks. You'll notice moisture increasing especially on Friday as a low-level stratus deck moves in. Despite the increase in moisture, fire danger will be high on Friday due to strong winds, warm temperatures and dry fuels.
During the day Friday, there will be an opportunity for a spotty shower. Chances are low but areas that this would most likely occur in would be north of Tulsa and into southeastern Kansas. A surface low will be moving across Kansas which could put us in a favorable location for showers, but the main forcing will stay to our north, especially near a surface boundary. Our chance for showers would come from a strengthening low-level jet that might provide enough lift. Because of this low-level jet, we will keep a small chance for showers in our far eastern counties overnight into Saturday morning. A cool front will swing through Saturday morning. This will not be associated with a cold air mass so despite north winds, we'll still have warm temperatures in the 70s.
Sunday will be the main start of an active and wet work week ahead. A stronger upper level system will move will start to dig over the Pacific northwest which would put us under southwest flow aloft. Within this southwest flow, waves of energy will start getting moving in and helping to provide rounds of showers and storms. While this upper level low moves over the desert southwest and parks, at the surface another surface low will set up in the Rockies. This will once again put us in a favorable zone for showers and storms but this time, the upper level forcing will closer to us. Showers and storms should move in sometime Sunday morning. There might be enough instability to support some strong to severe storms across southern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.
It's important to stress that this will be a very slow-moving system! In fact, it will take until Friday to get the upper level low to move out from our southwest and finally swing by. On Monday, we will still be in the favorable zone for scattered showers and storms. With enough instability, there could again be a few strong to severe storms. On Tuesday, there will be a zone set up where an axis of heavy rain and storms will set up. This means slow moving heavy rain and storms that could produce flooding issues. By Friday, most locations in eastern Oklahoma will have 2 to 4" of rain but depending on the location of Tuesday's heavy rain axis, that will be the areas that would see higher totals.
Wednesday is now the day that the surface features move in, slowly of course! Shower and storm chances will continue. By late Wednesday into Thursday when the surface front and attached lows are moving south, this could be a time where most locations north of I-40 catch a break. Keep in mind, we will still be dealing with waves of energy from the upper level low and those waves could bring in batch of showers and storms until Friday! Get your rain gear ready, it's going to be a wet 5-6 days.