Strong Winds Increase Fire Danger Across Northeast Oklahoma

Very strong northwest winds are expected again across the area today.   Winds may gust from 30 to near 50 mph creating a very high fire spread across the state and wind advisories will be likely.  Some locations may be flirting with high wind warnings to our northwest across part of Kansas by the midday to afternoon.  Red Flag warnings will be required for some locations along with wind advisories for the midday to afternoon.   The combination of very strong winds and low humidity will create some of the highest fire spread rates of the season.  Another surge of cooler-colder air will arrive later today and tonight bringing the coldest air of the week into the state Wednesday into Thursday morning.   South winds will return Thursday afternoon and evening with a signal for storm chances Saturday.  The pattern would support a mention for a few strong to severe storms but the actual return of low level moisture will be the determining factor. 

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Our main thinking regarding the upper air flow and pattern hasn’t change much from yesterday’s post.

The main upper level low that ejected into the central plains yesterday will move into the Midwest while merging with another Hudson Bay trough and will bring active weather to the northern high plains today and into the Great Lakes and northeast for the rest of the week.  The pattern across the southern and central plains will be from the northwest to southeast for the next week and should bring another short-wave diving down the inter mountain region Friday into Saturday.  This will create another Colorado surface low Thursday into Friday with returning southeast winds bringing warmer air into the state by the end of the week.  This system will eventually eject across Oklahoma sometime this weekend bringing another chance for a few storms to part of the area.  The next upper level system will more than likely impact part of the state around Tuesday of next week. 

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The difference this morning centers around the positioning of the surface low for Saturday among the various models.   The EURO is still south while the GFs has jumped northward with the low across far northwestern OK Saturday morning to afternoon.  This would have ramifications on the daytime highs Saturday and the positioning of a warm front across either Oklahoma or Kansas.  We still have work to do regarding the Saturday system and the potential for any strong to severe storms. 

In Summary today, very strong northwest winds are expected across the area this morning through afternoon with winds gusting from 30 to near 50 mph.   This will create another very high fire danger afternoon across the state, including northeastern Oklahoma, where Red Flag warnings will be posted today.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.