Warming Trend Begins Across Eastern Oklahoma

We’re not busting out the tank tops and shorts (at least most of us) but we are moving into some warmer weather for the next few days ahead of a storm system that brings a few showers and storms into eastern Oklahoma Sunday.  Temps this morning will start in the upper teens and lower 20s before moving into the mid to upper 40s later today along with sunshine and increasing south winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Breezy to near windy conditions will be expected Friday into Saturday as pressure falls occur to our northwest allowing southeast surface winds flowing into the plains. 

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Highs Friday should fall into the mid-50s and possibly into the lower to mid-60s Saturday.   The ensembles are slightly lower for Saturdays numbers this morning, but we’ll only make some minor adjustments for these periods.  The exact timing of the Sunday system is still up for grabs.  This means the exact temperature forecast for this weekend may continue to undergo some changes, but these should be relatively minor.  The trend of warmer weather into the system appears good. 

WARN Interactive Radar

The weekend system is a very strong and dynamic storm system from a pattern recognition standpoint.  This system would be a severe weather maker if our moisture had another day or two to pool across eastern OK before the arrival of the front.  As it stands now, the best chance for possibly a strong to severe storm would be in extreme southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, or better yet, east Texas into Louisiana.  The varied model outputs have continued the signal of veering the moisture we do have into eastern sections quickly Sunday.  This means the better chance will be east of the metro.  We’ve made some reductions to the rain chance for Tulsa compared to previous days, but there’s still a chance at this point.

The air mass behind the departing system is not arctic or Canadian, but mostly from the Pacific.  This means we’ll have only a minor cool-down early next week with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.