Warm, Windy Before Cold Front Moves Across Oklahoma

The next 36 hours will offer a return to windy and relatively warm conditions followed by windy and frigid weather as a powerful cold front surges across the area Thursday morning.  There will remain a window for some light wintry weather from freezing drizzle to sleet to snow across part of eastern Oklahoma as the cold air sweeps across the region.   Amounts are currently anticipated to remain light with more impactful precipitation expected northward into Kansas.  The exact track of the system will determine these factors and errors of less than 100 miles in distance can result in differing amounts.  The last two runs of the data ( most models) do generate a band of snowfall Thursday afternoon and early evening along Highway 69 across eastern Oklahoma before the dry air moves in behind the departing trough. 

WARN Interactive Radar

The cold air will stick around through the weekend as a second surge of arctic air arrives late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Morning lows this weekend will drop back into the teens with highs Saturday in the upper 20s and Sunday into the lower and mid 30s.   A surface ridge of high pressure builds into the state Monday behind another frontal passage and will keep us chilly for most of the early part of next week.  EURO data brings us more wintry weather impacts Monday into Tuesday across the southern sections while GFS data remain dry yet cold.   Our forecast will continue with low mentions at this point for early next week.

Weather Alerts

As stated here for the past few days, this system ejecting across the plains today and tomorrow is a classic winter storm.   If low level moisture were more abundant, strong to severe storms would be a possibility to the east and southeast of the cyclone tonight with the big winter impacts unfolding across Kansas and the high plains of Nebraska and the Dakotas.   As it looks now, some spotty showers with some lightning will be possible later tonight across northwestern Oklahoma with some light showers or drizzle possibly late tonight into early Thursday morning across northeast Oklahoma before the front arrives.   As the front powerhouses across the area Thursday morning temps will drop from the upper 40s and lower 50s into the lower 30s and upper 20s by afternoon with strong northwest winds from 20 to 35 mph.  Wind chills will be dropping into the teens or even lower.   While the moisture is not extremely impressive, we’ll have some mid-level moisture surviving behind the front and before the main upper trough swings across the southern plains.  It’s this small window from approximately 2pm to around 7pm or so that any leftover moisture will make the transitions to some snow.  Our chance will remain around 30-40% for this update but could increase with the next model run.  

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The second system will drop across the central plains Friday night into Saturday morning with a chance for a few flurries across far northeast Oklahoma and southeast  Kansas.  The moisture is expected to be rather sparse but some flurries will remain possible for a very small window early Saturday morning.  The cold air will basically stick around for a few days next week.

Before all of the cold air arrives Thursday morning, we’re in store for a very windy and warmer afternoon with south winds from 20 to 35 mph today.   A wind advisory may be required for some locations along and northwest or west of the I-44 region.  Just like yesterday, the clouds may ruin the temperature party and I’ve lowered the high a few degrees today in anticipation.   We’ll see highs in the mid to upper 50s north and a few lower 60s west.   At least that’s the plan at this point.   We may need to punt on 3rd down later today and make some temperature adjustments once we see how the real world cloud cover works out.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.