Front Bringing Rain To Oklahoma This Weekend

A Sunday system that brings rain to northeastern and eastern Oklahoma.   Another system will follow around Thursday into Friday of next week.  

WARN Interactive Radar

The main upper level pattern has changed, and this will allow for a return to near normal temps through the weekend and above normal temps for a few days next week.   A fast and strong looking upper level wave will dive atop of the mean ridge to the west and influence our area Sunday.   As this system nears the inter mountain region Saturday, a surface area of low pressure will quickly form and deepen as it moves from southeastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma.   South winds will return Saturday afternoon and evening with low level moisture quickly streaming into the state by early Sunday morning.   Yesterday I started thinking the models were overstating the warmth of the air mass across northeast Oklahoma with such a broad area of rain in the data.   This morning the models have apparently “caught on” and have begun trending more realistic with the temperature solutions.  Thus, we’ve trended the Sunday afternoon highs down a few degrees with most locations (in the forecast rain areas) topping out in the mid to upper 40s.   Locations west or southwest of the metro that do not receive rainfall will move into the lower and mid-50s, but Tulsa probably stays in the upper 40s with a rain likely.   As the system exits the state late Sunday night, gusty northwest winds will follow yet no appreciable cooling is expected.   This means temps early next week, while remaining chilly for the morning hours, will climb into the 50s across NE OK for daytime highs.   I expect some locations to hit the 60s across southwestern Oklahoma either Tuesday or Wednesday.  Operational GFS MOS data brings us into the 60s Wednesday but both GFS and EURO ensembles remain in the 50s.  

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The next upper level wave will quickly follow with yet another Colorado low developing Wednesday and entering northern Oklahoma sometime Thursday or Thursday night.   This system looks very dynamic in the data and could easily produce thunderstorms if the moisture can pool ahead of the system and winter weather behind it.  As it stands now, a few storms will be possible followed by a return to some colder air Friday into Saturday.  The trajectory of this system will need to be watched for any possible wintry precip before leaving late Thursday night into Friday morning yet the data remain inconclusive with the magnitude and depth of the cold air behind the system. 

Thanks again for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.