We’re tracking two systems that may have impacts on part of the region. The first will arrive later tonight into early Saturday morning. The second will arrive sometime Tuesday with a chance for a few storms followed by a noticeable reduction in temperature and moisture.
The second system will bring a nice taste of some pre-fall weather Wednesday through the end of next week. We’ll see a warming trend this weekend, more so Sunday into Monday with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Our weather for most of today will leave us with mostly sunny and warm conditions. Morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s will move with highs back into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with northeast winds for most of the day. The first system mentioned above will drop across western Kansas into northwestern and central Oklahoma later tonight into Saturday morning bringing a chance for a few showers or rumbles of thunder. Low level moisture is not exactly overly impressive but we should have enough for some precipitation with this system. The exact trajectory remains a little tricky but may brush the western sections of our area early later tonight into Saturday morning. This will require a continuation of the low chance of precipitation for our western areas for a few hours Saturday morning.
This weekend the highs will move into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow and lower 90s Sunday as mid-level heights begin to rise and south winds return at 10 to 15 mph. A broad deepening of the upper trough positioned across the Midwest to the Yukon region contrasted with the ridge to the west will create a favorable pattern for driving a cold front southward Monday into Tuesday. This front will bring a decent reduction in temperature to the state along with a few showers or storms both pre- and post-frontal. The timing of the front is crucial in my attempt to forecast the Tuesday highs. A faster arrival keeps us in the 70s all day while a slower arriving boundary could allow us to hit the 80s north and 90s south. Wednesday into Thursday the surface moisture advects southeast with eventually 40-degree dews reaching northeastern Oklahoma by mid to late week. The ability to cool efficiently will be realized with morning lows in the 50s for the metro and a few upper 40s across far northeast Oklahoma Thursday and Friday morning with highs in the 70s for the 2nd half of next week.
The faster or slower arriving of the front also have a role in the potential for more tropical-like weather across the Gulf of Mexico early next week with several signals of a system developing in the southern Bay of Campeche early next week. If the front is slower, the system may have a chance to advect northward nearing the southeastern Gulf coastal region. If the front is faster this will have a tendency to keep any developing system slightly south of the coast. At this point the faster solutions are preferred.
Another tropical issue will be Hurricane Irma. This system that developed during the past from few days off the western coast of Africa will move eastward under the sub-tropical ridge to the north and become a major hurricane soon. Consensus for the next few days is tight in the data. The latter potion of guidance continues to have considerable spread which is typical. Regardless, locations around the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico will be preparing for the possibility of this system and locations anywhere from the Caribbean, southern Florida, to the east coast should also remain aware of this developing system.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.