This is the beginning of the active weather pattern that will continue for several days including the weekend, and possibly into a few days next week with thunderstorm chances. While a few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out at times, the main threats (for most of the area) will eventually be heavy rainfall that may lead to some localized flooding potential. A flash flood or flood watch may be required for part of eastern Oklahoma sometime during the weekend. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to 90 north and lower 90s south with a minor heat index value near 93 to 95. After today, the daytime highs will drop back into the lower 80s due to the influence of the cloud cover and occasional rain-cooled air mass.
Most of the overnight showers and storms stay a hair west and southwest of the metro but we did have some very light precipitation that brushed part of the area overnight. A few left-over showers and storms may still yet form and move from southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma early this morning but the overall coverage and chance will remain low. Our low chances will mostly reside along the I-44 region northward for the next few hours. Later this afternoon a storm system will develop across part of central Kansas and begin growing upscale as it eventually moves southeast Thursday night. This storm complex(MCS) will drop into the state with a good likelihood of moderate to heavy rainfall for most of central and northern Oklahoma.
As the system begins moving southeast later tonight, there may be the potential for some damaging wind possibilities as the complex crosses into the state. The threat will remain low, but not zero. The exact trajectory is always a little iffy with these types of systems, but we have enough run to run support in most (but not all) data to stick with a high chance late tonight into Friday morning. After early Friday, the chances will diminish early morning to the afternoon as the system moves southeast of the area by midday. But the upper air pattern from the northwest to southeast will bring several more disturbances (storm systems) across the state including later Friday night and Saturday morning and possibly Saturday night late into Sunday morning. This highly unusual pattern for august will remain active a few days next week as a surface front may stall across part of northeastern or east central OK keeping the threat for additional precipitation nearby.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.