We should be nearing 100 again today and through part of the weekend before a minor pattern change brings a chance for a few showers or storms across part of northern Oklahoma along with a reduction in the heat. A heat advisory will remain today and tomorrow for much of eastern Oklahoma along with excessive heat warning across southern Kansas. Heat index values today will range from 105 to 110. South winds may increase slightly today in the range from 10 to 22 mph along with abundant sunshine.
The data today mostly continue to support at least a mention for a few showers or storms moving into southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday morning as the mid-level ridge of high pressure attempts to weaken, flatten and migrate away from the area for a short period. Local outflow boundaries can move southward but the odds for any big cool air remains very low. We’ll drop into the lower 90s for highs Monday and Tuesday with THI values around 100. The chance for some storm activity will remain around 40% for Sunday night into predawn Monday with another 30-40% chance from highway 412 north Monday night into Tuesday morning. We do see signals for organized MCS activity ( a storm complex) moving into the area but my confidence continues to be low to average based on the climo pattern for mid-July.
The mid-level ridge will attempt to build back across the southern plains sometime next week and this will keep us hot and dry for a while into next Friday. Some data suggest another retrograde of the ridge next weekend with a back-door front nearing the state. We shall wait it out for a while before jumping on the band wagon.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!