The mid-level ridge of high pressure has now moved slightly to the west and this will allow a weak front in southern Kansas to slide southward later today. This will bring a few scattered storms into the area today and may provide a focus for some additional storms for part of the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be rather warm but should not be as high as the past two days. THI values will also drop a few degrees today. It’s doubtful that heat advisories will be required for most of the area but a few locations may briefly exceed 105 for an hour or two today southeast of the metro. The Tulsa THI should max out around 103 or so.
This weak front should drop into northern Oklahoma and stall near or north of the Highway 412 corridor region. Stronger winds aloft (and stronger upper level support) will remain well removed from the southern plains. The front will need a large area of storm activity to push it more southward. But the odds are still rather low and most storms will remain scattered along the boundary later today with the daytime heating process also contributing to some lifting. Severe weather threats in this environment will remain low but not zero. We could always have a precip loading event with a wet down-bursts but the odds will remain very low for severe weather the next few days. The tropical like moisture will allow for some efficient rainfall producing downdrafts and this may allow for locally heavy rainfall in a few spots. Sunday some activity is likely but may be too far west or southwest to impact the majority of NE Oklahoma.
Temperatures this weekend may drop a few degrees with highs projected from the mid to upper 80s across northern Oklahoma to the lower 90s across the south. The air mass is not expected to change greatly and will keep the tropical to muggy weather across eastern Oklahoma this weekend. The minor reduction in daytime highs will also support a minor reduction in the heat index.
Most data continue to point us back to the ridge of high pressure aloft as the dominate feature next week. The center of the ridge may move (or develop more) to the east or southeastern U.S. by late next week.
The EURO is pushing the ridge slightly northward with a weakness (minor trough) developing under the back side by Wednesday bringing active weather into the region for the end of next week. The GFS is more of a normal pattern for mid-July with the ridge reforming near the central plains and becoming somewhat elongated but still the dominate feature next week with little to no pops. I’ll keep the extended toasty and dry for now. Once we start the drying out process (lack of rain aiding the “browning process” of vegetation) the temps will start climbing even more with a few folks nearing real-deal triple digits by late next week to the following week across part of eastern Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!