We’ll keep the morning forecast discussion (post) brief as a typical summer-time pattern will evolve this week across the central and southern plains as a mid-level ridge of high pressure becomes the dominate weather feature. This ridge, for the most part, has been parked west of the region for the past month or so but should be expanding eastward bringing hot and humid weather to the southern and central plains for the next few days.
Sinking and compressing air will bring the daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s this week with morning lows in the lower to mid-70s. Our tropical-like air mass with dew point temperatures in the 70s will continue.
Some very minor mixing may occur during the peak of the afternoon hours in a few spots but the muggy weather will remain with THI values around 104 to 106 by the middle to end of the week. We’ll be flirting with some heat advisory criteria for the next few days for some locations.
Yesterday morning we did experience some patchy yet dense fog in some valley locations across eastern OK. There will remain a possibility of that again this morning for some areas. Just remain aware for the early morning hours but most folks will be in good shape.
This ridge will have some weakness, more so across the far eastern portions of the state. And some data also support a weak and small vort max moving out of southeast TX into the north TX region Wednesday night into Thursday.
This may spread a few storms across far southeastern OK during this period. Otherwise, a few isolated showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon this week as convective temperatures are exceeded but the chance will remain around 5%. I’ll not place these low pops on the big 7day planner.
GFS data has continued offering a solution of retrograding the ridge by the end of the week with a weak back-door type front enter northeastern OK this weekend with storm chances returning Sunday. EURO, while hinting at this yesterday, is a little more steady state with the ridge this weekend but may still have a small window for a few storms.
We’ll not include a big pop at this point as the normal climate tends to favor persistence as the rule in mid-July with the mid-level ridge eventually winning out. But we’ll keep the low-end pops for the weekend and make some adjustments when needed.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!