Tropical storm Cindy is moving onshore this morning and is located across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The system will move northward into East Texas before rapidly ejecting to the northeast of the area early Friday morning. The main impact from this system across eastern Oklahoma will be in the form of high and mid-level clouds. A few showers may slide across southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas but the odds will remain low outside of the Leflore to McCurtain county region. Most of the area will remain on the northwest and western side of the tropical cyclone which will result in sinking air. Thus, no precipitation for the Tulsa metro from Cindy. Our rain chances will be arriving from the north as a series of fronts will move across the area Friday into the weekend with some rain and thunderstorm potential.
The data for the weekend continues to offer a low confidence forecast for the weekend regarding the exact timing and location of rain chances but as started to converge on a more reliable outcome. The first front will arrive Friday with a chance for a few showers and storms followed by a decent cool down with highs in the mid to upper 80s and northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. The 2nd system will arrive either late Saturday night or early Sunday morning with even cooler air with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s depending upon your location across the region and the impact of cloud cover.
The data seems to be converging on a solution offering lower rain chances for the northern Oklahoma region, including the metro, for the weekend. The higher chances may occur to the west or southwest of the area Saturday and to the south of the area Sunday. We still need to keep some chances for precipitation over the weekend, including the metro, as the data may easily flip again. Basically, our forecast remains with a compromise blend (probably not totally correct but not totally wrong) with a slight chance of showers and storms for the weekend.
The pattern next week has changed in the data also with a low confidence for the middle to end of next week. Yesterday the data was characteristically bringing a mid-level ridge of high pressure near the state with decreasing rain and storm chances and increasing temps. But today (and last night) the data is keeping the main ridge west with a northwest flow continuing across the state. This pattern (typical for early to mid-June) would bring several rounds of nocturnal showers and storms across the area along with cooler (not hotter) air.
Needless to say, (or write) but we’ll focus on the weekend before we dive into next week!
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!