Oklahoma Rain Chances Return Later In Week

Our main issues revolve around a southward moving cold front Friday into Saturday, a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and a possible 2nd front or system Sunday.   The result will eventually be a reduction in temperature for the weekend and increasing rain and storm chances for some locations beginning Friday.   The data is not consistent regarding the specifics for the weekend but we have made some adjustments leaning toward rain chances continuing into Sunday for some locations.   Temperatures today are expected to be back in the lower 90s along with sunshine and south winds from 10 to 20 mph.  The reduction in temperatures this weekend may allow readings in the upper 70s Sunday for eastern Oklahoma.   Not too bad for the 1st full weekend of summer. 

Weather Alerts

The upper air flow may still bring a few showers or storms near the area over the next 24 to 48 hours with active weather across southwestern Kansas attempting to migrate into northwestern Oklahoma and possibly the far north-central part of the state.   While this should remain well northwest of our area, the flow can always bring a few surprises near us.   This pop remains around 10% and remains off the big map at this point. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Tropical storm Cindy, located in the Gulf this morning, is moving north to northwest and should make landfall later tonight or early Thursday morning across southeastern Texas.   The flow will bring the low northward along the East Texas and western Louisiana state line region before getting caught in the upper flow and rapidly ejecting to the northeast Friday morning.   Thursday night this system may be close enough to support a few outer bands nearing or moving into southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas.   Most of eastern Oklahoma will be on the northwest side of the tropical system.   This will be a side characterized with mostly sinking air and a much smaller chance of showers or storms.   Tropical air in the form of lower 70-degree dew point temperatures will reside across far eastern Oklahoma creating very muggy conditions Thursday into Friday.   As the tropical system ejects eastward Friday morning a front will be nearing northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.   This boundary should pass the metro by the morning to midday hours bringing a chance for some showers and storms followed by a decent cool down.   Saturday morning the lows will be in the 60s with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.   While the GFS data supports the precip chances ending Saturday morning, the EURO continue to offer a 2nd system Saturday evening into Sunday with additional precip chances and even cooler air.   Our previous forecast did not include this Sunday pop but we have decided to add a chance for this update cycle.   If this is indeed the case (more rain Sunday morning) the temps will be very mild for by June standards with highs in the mid-70s and consequently we’ll need a much higher pop for Sunday.   I’m still not sold at this point on any solution for Sunday. 

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We still have plenty of work to accomplish regarding the exact outcome of the weekend with very little rainfall expected from the tropical system and mostly being impacted by the frontal boundary ( or systems) approaching from the north.  Our confidence continues to remain below average for this period and additional changes are likely to occur.   Please check the forecast often for updates.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone