The front that moved slowly across the area this weekend is now located across far southeastern OK and is moving into north TX this morning with an area of thunderstorms nearing the Red River Valley. Most of the storms will quickly exit the state during the next few hours with pleasant weather remaining for northeastern OK today and tomorrow before warmer and more humid weather returns by the middle to the end of the week.
Most data support another front nearing the state by Friday and moving back into the region this weekend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. The weather is expected to remain rather pleasant for the next 36 hours with a noticeable decrease in low level moisture resulting in cooler overnight and morning lows and less humid afternoons.
Residual moisture at the surface due to rainfall will result in patchy fog this morning in some locations across northern OK. And it could be locally thick in a few spots.
Temperatures this morning are expected to remain mild with lows in the 60s followed by highs in the mid to upper 80s along with some sunshine and northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. A fast-moving disturbance may brush southern Kansas and far northern OK with a few midday clouds or a small shower or two.
The upper air flow will remain loosely from the northwest for the next few days with a small disturbance possibly brushing the central plains Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM and Wed PM into Thursday. This may not result in a big storm complex but we may still have a storm or two that could sweep down the flow into the state. Northwest flow is very tricky. It doesn’t take much to keep a storm surviving as this past weekend is a good example as two cells Saturday morning dropped down from the Missouri Valley into eastern OK and continued through the day as it moved southward. I’ll keep a slight mention for a storm or two Wednesday into Thursday but the chance will need to remain very low.
A better chance will arrive Friday into the weekend as another broad scale front will be nearing the state with another decent chance of showers and storms. I should also note the EURO is about a day slower ( Sun vs Sat) compared to the GFS ( Saturday). Therefore, some changes to this period should be expected.
Pleasant weather arrives today with highs in the 80s and back into the lower 90s Tuesday.
Slightly warmer and muggy conditions will return Wednesday with lows near 70 and highs in the lower 90s along with south winds around 10 to 20 mph.
There will be a slight chance of storms Thursday morning with lows in the lower to mid-70s. Highs will return into the mid-90s with south winds.
Friday into Saturday supports another increasing chance of storms. Temps will be in the 70os for lows and the lower 90s for Friday afternoon highs. Daytime highs will drop into the 80s this weekend with north winds and a chance of storms Saturday.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!