Warm Across Eastern Oklahoma, Severe Potential Saturday

After this morning’s supreme weather with cool temps and clear sky, the south winds will return along with highs moving back into the lower 80s.   Southeast winds from 15 to 25 mph will be likely this afternoon in advance of our next system arriving Saturday.    A big warm-up is expected to continue from Friday into Saturday with daytime highs near 90.   The increasing low level moisture will support a heat index value Friday nearing 97 by the afternoon.    While we do have a few very low chances for showers and storms across part of the periphery over the next 48 hours, our focus for storms will remain Saturday, including the threat of severe weather.

Weather Alerts

Our next upper level system is taking shape across southern Canada and will drop southeast into the northern high plains by Friday afternoon or evening.   This broad trough will allow a disturbance to rotate around the western periphery and across the Rockies into the southern plains soon.   As this occurs, a surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across southeastern Colorado and traverse east to southeast nearing the area Friday morning.   A quasi-stationary-warm front should develop east of the low and span across northern Oklahoma or better yet southern Kansas.   The first disturbance will trigger storms across SE Colorado or western Kansas tonight and move eastward along the top side of the above-mentioned front.   This complex of storms (mesoscale convective system) or MCS will skirt our area by Friday morning.   Unless the boundary is located more southward than anticipated, this MCS should remain north of our immediate area.   Locations south of the warm front will anticipate warm and muggy conditions at the surface and a temperature inversion should also be present just off the deck into the 4 to 5k foot level.   This CAP should suppress thunderstorm activity Friday.  But if a storm does happen to form Friday afternoon or evening it would be severe.   Some hi-res data suggests one or two storms may develop Friday afternoon or evening across far eastern OK.  

WARN Interactive Radar

Saturday another disturbance is expected to round the base of the trough and have a better chance of developing storms Saturday afternoon or evening as the surface front begins moving southeast but we may continue to have some capping issues across central to eastern OK for the early to midday period.  This means the better chance for development may came late in the afternoon through the evening hours.   Convective potential energy should be high with very high and surface instabilities also increasing.   This means the potential for some severe thunderstorm activity will be increasing during the afternoon into the evening hours.    Regardless, the severe weather potential will be increasing and you’;ll need to remain aware of your weather surroundings Saturday and Saturday evening.    The rather robust thermal environment is more than adequate for some significant severe weather.  The front will clear the area late Saturday night or Sunday morning taking the storms away from the state and bringing north winds back to the area Sunday along with pleasant conditions into Monday.   Another system may approach the area late Monday night into Tuesday and bring some storm chances back to the state.   The data this morning continue to offer a boundary near northern Oklahoma for several days next week that will necessitate keeping a mention of storms in the forecast through the end of the week. 

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Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.                                                                  

Have a super great Day.

Alan Crone