After a series of severe weather days and widespread flooding, our weekend reprieve was just what the doctor ordered. However, those beautiful, dry conditions are already giving way to another rainy spell. Fortunately, this early week storm system is lacking the usual components for severe weather and heavy rainfall. Beyond the next 36 hours, our weather will be making some big changes. Here’s what we see for the rest of the month.
Starting this afternoon, scattered showers and isolated rumbles of thunder will overspread parts of Green Country. Due to the lack of moisture and instability, nothing will be all that heavy. After this first little wave clears out later this evening, a cold front will arrive, bringing another focus for showers and isolated storms by Tuesday morning. Once again, we just don’t have a lot of fuel in the atmosphere for anything to significant. Behind this cold front, both cooler temperatures at the surface and aloft sweep in, bringing an early spring feel to the air. A few t-showers may pop up underneath this deep upper level low during the day, but Tuesday won’t be a washout by any means. Less than half an inch of rain total is expected with this system.
You’ll want a jacket on hand midweek with morning lows dipping into the 40s and high temperatures below the 70° mark Tuesday and Wednesday. Enjoy the crisp, dryness to the air because the May “muggies" are rushing back later this week. After a cool Thursday morning, south winds and sunshine bring about a major warming trend with highs returning into the 80s. By Friday, it’ll be downright muggy and we’ll be talking about a heat index. By Saturday, another trough in the jet stream to our west will send a storm system our way, interacting with all the newfound heat and moisture.
It looks like our Memorial Day weekend will be a mixed one with regards to weather. There is growing confidence that a severe storm set-up will be with us sometime between Friday night and Sunday. It’s too early to pick out the greatest threats or what the timing will be. However, if the CAP breaks, storms will could erupt quickly to severe levels. Just be aware of that threat if you’ve got outdoor plans in that time frame! As of now, Memorial Day looks cooler and generally dry, but the overall pattern could support a little rain, so I wouldn’t rule out this early in the forecasting for the holiday.
Unfortunately, our area lakes won’t fully recover in time for the kick-off to the summer lake season. Many of them are 20’+ above normal, and in a few reservoirs, still rising. Keystone, Tenkiller, and Fort Gibson are running the highest at this point, making it difficult for some recreation that still isn’t already restricted. The good news is that copious rainfall is not in our forecast for the week ahead. If we look beyond this weekend, a wetter than normal pattern is back with us. On top of that, the cooler weather returns for our final couple days of the month into early June.
If we don’t make it to 90° later this week, it will likely be well into June before we hit that mark. For Tulsa, we haven’t seen a 90° since mid-March! That means our warmest temperatures of the year so far came over 2 months ago. Now that is a wild statistic if you think about it.
Enjoy the cool and non-severe rainfall in the area. May’s inclement weather looks to return and severe weather season is definitely not over for us yet.