Significant severe weather is likely to develop this afternoon and early evening across the western third of the state, including northwestern OK, and migrate eastward later tonight. By the time most storms arrive across northeastern OK later this evening our main threats will be damaging winds and some hail along with heavy rainfall.
There will be a tornado threat, even across part of northeastern OK with this system tonight despite the much higher likelihood for a tornado outbreak today across the northwestern and north-central part of the state. The atmosphere will recover after this first round of thunderstorm activity allowing additional storm development Friday afternoon and evening across central and eastern OK.
Some of these storms will be severe with all modes of severe possible. A cold front will eventually sweep across the region late Friday night with a line of thunderstorm activity including the threats of damaging winds, heavy rainfall and some hail. The front should clear the area pre-dawn Saturday morning but some lingering rain may continue for a few hours as the front sinks southward across southeastern OK.
Sunday appears mild and dry with highs in the lower to mid-70s. Another fast-moving wave will move across the state Monday night into Tuesday with additional storm chances followed by a noticeable cool-down Tuesday through the middle to end of next week.
The Storms Prediction Center has placed a large portion of northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas in a high-risk area surrounded by moderate to enhanced threats surrounding the high-risk region. The Tulsa metro currently resides in the enhanced region and may experience severe weather later this evening into pre-dawn Friday.
A stout upper-level trough will be positioned over the Rockies later this afternoon and evening with a surface low developing across southeastern Colorado today and advancing into southwestern Kansas later this afternoon. A dry line extending southward from this feature and a developing front out of the Rockies will all work to produce thunderstorms across the western half of the state later this afternoon and evening.
Storms closer to the surface low ( NW OK-SW Kansas) will be in a favored position for deep sustained tilted updrafts resulting in very large hail and the possibility of strong long-tracked tornadoes. After the initial stages of discrete storm activity additional storms will develop off the boundary and become linear moving across northern OK tonight with mostly a damaging wind threat but a tornado threat will also remain.
After a lull of activity Friday morning, additional storms will redevelop Friday afternoon and evening across central and northeastern OK that may also be discrete super cells before the front accelerates southeast with a line of storms developing Friday night through pre-dawn Saturday morning across the area.
The next system will zip across the area late Monday night into Tuesday with a few storms followed by some cooler air for the middle of next week.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Please remain aware of your weather surroundings tonight and Friday.