The storm system to our west will be nearing the area during the next 36 hours with increasing thunderstorm chances at times across the area. We may have a few showers or storms this morning across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas but additional storm chances will arrive this afternoon and evening, and then also Thursday.
The potential for a few strong to severe storms will remain with this system but the higher probability for severe weather for most of eastern Oklahoma will arrive Thursday afternoon and evening. This system will be exiting sometime early Friday morning with a few lingering showers for the first half of the day. The weekend appears dry and warm with highs Sunday back into the mid-80s before the next storm system will slowly impact the area early next week.
The main upper level system is still to our west but is modeled to move eastward over the state by Thursday afternoon and evening. A surface low will continue to develop across the high plains of Texas and move eastward Thursday. A dry line will sharpen up today across the high plains, placing the western third of the state in the best position for surface based thunderstorm activity including all modes of severe weather. Storms that develop well east of the dry line across central or eastern Oklahoma later tonight may be severe but the probability for severe will remain low. A few of these showers and storms may persist early Thursday morning across northern Oklahoma before moving northeast out of the area by midday. The surface low will travel east and possibly southeast by Thursday night as a cold front will eventually across northern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon as the dry line advances east and southeast Thursday evening. Storms are likely to develop and could be strong to severe with the initial development remaining discrete capable of all modes of severe weather. As the evening progresses storms are more likely to develop line segments or clusters and move across southeastern or east-central Oklahoma with a damaging wind and hail threat.
Significant flash flooding is not expected with this system due to the relatively fast nature. Clouds will eventually clear from the northwest to southeast Friday with a surface ridge of high pressuring bringing pleasant conditions Saturday. Warmer air will be likely Sunday into early next week as a southwest flow aloft brings a few disturbances into the state with additional storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
Storms will be possible this morning across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, well ahead of the developing storm system to the west. And then some storms may develop across eastern Oklahoma later this afternoon and early evening. Additional storms are likely to develop across Western Oklahoma Wednesday evening that may be severe. A few of these storms may enter far northern Oklahoma late Wednesday night into Thursday morning but the chance will remain very low.
Thursday storms are likely. Some may be strong to severe. Lows will be in the lower 60s with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. South winds will remain at 15 to 25 mph until later Thursday night when winds will shift out of the northeast.
Friday the storms will end early. Lows will be in the mid-50s with highs in the lower to mid-70s along with north winds and decreasing clouds by midday to afternoon.
Saturday morning the lows will be near 51 with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with sunshine and east winds shifting back from the south by midday.
Sunday the lows will be near 55. The highs will be near 85 along with sunshine and a return to south winds. It appears the next system will bring a few storms into the area Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog
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