We’re tracking another incoming storm system arriving across the area later tonight into Wednesday that will spread periods of rain and thunderstorm activity back across the area. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible but the system will be a fast-moving storm and should exit the area Wednesday early afternoon. Precipitation output from the various blends would support from .50 to near 2 inches of rainfall across part of eastern OK with higher amounts along the northern sections. While these are relatively low amounts compared to the past system, the already saturated soils combined with rivers-streams-creeks- and lakes at flood will result in an increase in some of these levels. While additional significant flooding is unlikely, additional rainfall will be problematic. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s before the system nears the area later tonight.
The upper air flow will bring the next upper level wave near the area later tonight and Wednesday while the surface reflection will undergo changes today and tonight. A weak front will enter northern OK this morning and should be positioned near or south of the metro later this afternoon and evening. Locations north of the front will see highs in the mid to upper 70s along with east to northeast winds while locations south will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s along with east to southeast winds. A surface area of low pressure should develop across the northern areas of Western North Texas later tonight and sink southeast with time Wednesday. While the surface front will be near or slightly south of the metro later today and tonight, a mid-level front will remain slightly north. This zone will be prominent in late night and Wednesday morning storm development across southern Kansas and northern OK. A few elevated storms producing small to moderate hail and heavy rainfall will be possible. Locations south of the metro will see storms moving into the area by Wednesday morning to midday with heavy rainfall sliding across southeastern OK where a few strong storms could occur Wednesday midday. Temps Wednesday will stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s with cloudy and cool weather.
Thursday through the weekend the upper air pattern will change with a mid-level ridge of high pressure developing across the southern plains as the next western trough stays to our west. This blocking pattern will keep the active storms away from the state for the weekend and possibly into a few days early next week. Thursday may feature a few left-over sprinkles with morning glows in the lower 40s and highs in the upper 60s. Friday looks great with sunshine and north winds. Lows will be in the lower 40s and highs topping out in the lower 70s. Temps will gradually warm with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.