We're tracking a chance of thunderstorms later tonight and a few may be strong to severe as a cold front moves across northeastern OK. Temperatures today will be unseasonably warm with highs in the lower to mid-80s along with gusty south winds around 20 to 30 mph. A much stronger storm system will near the area Friday into the weekend bringing more rain and storm chances including the threats of heavy rainfall and some severe weather.
The front is located well to the northwest of the state this morning and we're in good shape for the rest of the day with warm and windy conditions. As the front nears the area later tonight storms will develop along and behind the boundary. The threat for severe storms will remain this evening through the morning hours. After the front passes the area additional showers may persist for a few hours Wednesday along with gusty northwest winds and much cooler air. We may stay in the lower 50s for the afternoon highs with cloudy and blustery weather.
Thursday, we may get a break with partly cloudy and mild weather but the main upper level trough to the west will begin changing our weather again late Thursday night into Friday morning. There remain some big differences in the data for Friday and Saturday but the trend has shifted the position of the warm front more southward compared to previous runs. This means the higher severe threats may also remain slightly south of the northern OK area. But I hesitate to offer anything more than a trend at this point until data becomes more consistent and our confidence increases.
What does this mean for the forecast? Friday into Saturday will be very active with increasing thunderstorm chances. We'll need to keep a decent chance of storms Friday but the higher pop will be centered for Saturday with gusty south winds until the frontal passage in the afternoon and evening with northwest winds. All modes of severe weather will need to be mentioned at this point for Friday into Saturday. After the surface features pass the area Saturday night into Sunday morning gusty northwest winds will develop and bring much cooler air back to the state. Looks like another Sunday with chilly weather for the area.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!'