Our weather pattern will become active again late tonight into Thursday morning when a cold front will move southeast from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma with a chance of showers and storms increasing along and behind the front. A limited severe weather threat will remain across far northeastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas during the 3 am to 6 am period early Thursday morning. Additional storms will be possible Thursday afternoon into the evening hours across southern and western Oklahoma, a few of these may be severe.
Today, we’ll be expecting strong south winds and highs moving into the lower and mid-80's along with mostly sunny conditions before the front arrives Thursday morning. A powerful upper level low will develop and influence the state Friday through per-dawn Saturday with increasing thunderstorm chances and the threat of some severe weather. The system should exit early Saturday morning with gusty northwest winds and noticeably cooler air for the weekend.
One of the issues we’ll continue to examine for the next 48 hours will be the eventual stalling point of the Thursday front, and how far northward the front will retreat Friday as a warm front. The location of this boundary will be key to determining the maximum locations for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. If the front surges northward into northeastern Oklahoma by Friday night, the severe weather threats will also increase across most of the central into northeastern Oklahoma with all modes of severe weather becoming possible. If the boundary remains to the south, mostly near the I-40 region for the afternoon and evening, the severe weather threats will be confined to the I-40 region southward with heavy rainfall potential for northeastern Oklahoma. As of this morning, I think the initial front may surge southward to near the Kiamichi area (far southeastern Oklahoma) Thursday afternoon before stalling for a few hours. Late Thursday night into Friday morning storms will develop to the north of the surface boundary (including northeastern Oklahoma) and may produce some heavy rainfall and some hail reports. Surface based thunderstorm activity is not expected across the far northeastern sections of the state during the early Friday morning period. We’ll experience a lull in the thunderstorm activity by midday with pressure falling to our northwest as the upper level low draws closer to the state. A surface low will quickly form and begin to deepen across northwestern or west-central Oklahoma and our winds will return from the southeast by midday to early afternoon Friday with the front moving northwest in response. This boundary will be positioned near the metro by late Friday night allowing storms to be strong to severe across the eastern third into south central Oklahoma.
Late Friday night the surface low will eject across far northeastern Oklahoma with northwest winds quickly filling down across the region bringing dry and cooler air. This will effectively keep any precip to our northeast by midday Saturday with temps staying in the upper 50's or lower 60's for the afternoon. Saturday night temps will drop into the lower 50's quickly by sunset and into the upper 40's by the 10 pm hours. Sunday morning lows will start in the lower 40's and finish with highs in the mid to upper 60's as a surface ridge of high pressure centers near the state by the afternoon or evening. Monday the south winds will return along with warmer air as the next upper level system nears the state.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!