Clear & Cold Tonight

The cold front that arrived shortly after the midnight hour for Tulsa has produced another one of those upside down days with respect to what the record book will show.  Although the afternoon high has only been 61, the record book for today’s date will show the 73 that held until after midnight, then the front arrived and temperatures started plunging.  In fact, we were down to 39 by shortly after sunrise and may well be colder than that by midnight tonight.  By the way, the normal values for this date are 58/36.

The gusty NW winds of today not only brought in the much cooler air, but also very dry air as you can see by the relative humidity levels as of late this afternoon.  That cooler, very dry air now in place will result in a cold night tonight with morning lows likely at or below the freezing mark for most of Green Country. 

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At least the winds will calm down tonight and will be much lighter for Thursday which will alleviate the fire danger somewhat.  Even so, it seems there are daily changes to the county-wide burn bans and here are the counties currently under a burn ban.

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Full sun on Thursday together with a light westerly wind component should produce a nice rebound with afternoon highs in the 60s after starting at or below the freezing mark.  Friday morning will also get off to a cold start with temperatures near freezing and with lots of sunshine another nice rebound that afternoon.  Look for daytime highs well into the 60s, but our winds will be returning to a southerly direction and becoming gusty that afternoon.

Saturday will see strong and gusty southerly winds which will gradually increase the available moisture producing more cloud cover, but no mention of rain.  However, that will result in warmer conditions with morning lows well into the 40s followed by daytime highs in the upper 60s to near 70.  The higher humidity levels will mitigate the fire danger somewhat, but the strength of the winds will still be cause for concern.

As you can see on our forecast page, gusty southerly winds will continue through Sunday and Monday resulting in even warmer temperatures, particularly at night.  Those winds will also bring in more moisture so we will have very little sunshine which will help keep our daytime temperatures somewhat in check, but we should still make it into the 70s.

Our next front looks to arrive Monday night and ahead of that there will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms for Monday afternoon becoming more likely that night, ending Tuesday morning.  Right now, the longer range guidance is not very compatible with the GFS very wet and the European model much drier with this next system.  For now, will keep the chances at the 30% level until we get better consistency from model to model and run to run.  Also, the storm system of interest is currently out in the Pacific so there is considerable uncertainty regarding the intensity, timing, and track so will take a conservative approach until we get better agreement.  As you can see on the 7 day QPF, once again we are on the western fringe of the better moisture availability.

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After that system moves through, it should be followed by another brief cool-down for the middle of next week.

Looking further down the road into the middle of March, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country.  By the way, that is also the outlook for the entire month.  Also, our chances for any additional moisture of consequence is not very promising for that time period either, nor for the month as a whole.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot