Warming Trend Next Few Days.

Now that the sun has come out, thought a brief look back at our rainfall totals over the last few days would be in order.  Have used the 3 day totals in order to catch the complete event across the state, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.  Once again, the far S/SE counties really reaped the benefit of this particular system with much lesser amounts for the far N/NW counties.  Keep in mind, this was not a drought breaker as we do need more rainfall in order to bring the subsoil moisture up and more importantly ponds, streams, and reservoirs across the state are in many cases still low.

[img]

Also, the vegetation is still dormant so despite the recent rainfall, a day with sunny, windy conditions can quickly dry out the fine fuels, ie grasses and weeds, leading to an enhanced fire danger situation.  That will be an issue for the next few days as gusty southerly winds return, temperatures will be much warmer than normal, and humidity levels will be dropping to 30% or less tomorrow afternoon and generally in the 30% range for Friday afternoon.  At least these rains have prompted the governor to lift the burn ban, if only temporarily.

[img]

For tonight, the clear skies and very dry air in place will result in temperatures dropping off quickly into the low 40s and perhaps even upper 30s by the midnight hour and near the freezing mark by morning.  A light southerly breeze will quickly pick up after sunrise with winds of 15-25 by afternoon and with the winds from a S/SW direction look for temperatures to quickly rise into the upper 60s to near 70 for a daytime high.  Keep in mind, our normal max/min for this time of year is 53/31.

As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will continue to moderate through the weekend and into the following week.  Along with a persistent southerly wind, clouds will be on the increase with some high level cirrus clouds moving in during the day Friday and considerable low level cloud cover for the weekend and into next week.  As a result, much above normal temperatures will be the general rule and there will also be another decent chance for showers.

Cannot rule out a few sprinkles or a light shower or two for Sat/Sun, but anything that falls during that time frame will be very light.  However, better chances of rain and perhaps even some thunder are still in the forecast for the early part of next week.  To illustrate the uncertainty with this next system, thought a look at the weather charts at the 500 mb level, or about 18,000 feet above sea level would be instructive.  The wind barbs show the wind direction and speed and the colors are representative of the strongest winds at that level, ie the jet stream location.

On the first chart, I have labeled the storm system which produced yesterday’s widespread rainfall. Around the noon hour, it was located over the southern part of the state and drifting on to the E/SE.  Although not labeled there is another system on the far western border of the map out over the Pacific Ocean which looks to be our next storm system.  However, since it is out in the Pacific, it has not been well sampled as yet.

[img]

This next chart is of the same level with the same parameters, but is the forecast valid for Tuesday Noon of next week.  Notice this next storm system is progged to be located along the TX coast so obviously much further south than the rainmaker we enjoyed yesterday. 

[img]

If that verifies, that will keep the best chance of rain and the heaviest amounts much further south into Texas as you can see on the 7 day QPF.  However, yesterday’s rainmaker was also progged to take a track much further south than was actually the case, so subsequent model runs will be carefully monitored and we may not have a more confident solution for several more days, ie when it actually moves inland and is better sampled by our observational network.  At any rate, we will have at least another shot at some rainfall for early next week, depending on the exact track and intensity of that particular system.

[img]

The outlook going through the last week of February continues to suggest temperatures averaging above normal but at least it also suggests a chance of some additional rainfall.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot