A Look Back, And A Look Ahead.

Thought a brief weather summary of the last few days would be instructive.  First, the freezing rain that fell off and on from Friday through the day Saturday.  As is often the case with events such as this, there was considerable variation in the amounts and the impacts due to the very shallow nature of the cold air, the rather long time frame over which it took place, and the temperature fluctuations during that time frame.  At any rate, the table below is a summary of the ‘official’ observed freezing rain totals in the immediate area as compiled by the good folks at the local NWS office.  This is the amount of rain that fell during the time temperatures were at or below freezing. 

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Here is the ice accumulation as estimated by the good folks at the local NWS office.  Fortunately, the impacts were not as bad as might have been since this fell over a fairly long time frame and temperatures were right at the freezing mark.  This combination probably prevented as much ice from building up as would otherwise have been the case.  Also, the very warm conditions preceding the event helped to warm the ground at least somewhat so that travel impacts were pretty well confined to elevated surfaces, i.e. bridges and overpasses.

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As for the total rainfall over the course of the event, this was certainly a good soaking rain which was badly needed in view of the expanding drought we have been dealing with recently.  Notice the total rainfall over the last 3 days, courtesy of the OK Mesonet as of this afternoon.  Also, the timing was particularly beneficial in that, for the most part, the heavier rains occurred after temperatures had moderated above freezing, at least here in Green Country.  Unfortunately, for our neighbors in NW OK, the absence of data or the low totals in some instances that you see on the map indicate that power has still not been restored for many of those areas and it will be quite some time before they recover from what has been a massive ice storm.

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Now that this storm system has moved on east of us, W/NW winds are bringing in drier and somewhat cooler air.  The complicating factor will be cloud cover which will have an impact on temperatures over the next few days.  In any event, we still expect to be warmer than normal as a general rule right on through the coming weekend as you can see on our forecast page.  By the way, we have turned the corner so to speak in that our normal max/min is now 48/27 as opposed to the 47/27 that was the norm up until a couple of days ago.  So, the general trend is upward until the peak of summer for what that is worth.

At any rate, look for temperatures to be near the freezing mark to start the day Tuesday and then with a NW breeze, we should be near 50 for a daytime high.  Wednesday will be somewhat milder but mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday and Wednesday will moderate the warm-up to a certain extent.  There will also be a chance of a few showers for the more SE counties on Wednesday and a better chance area wide over the course of the weekend.  The next storm system will be affecting the state by then, but the available moisture is somewhat in question so will go with a rather low chance for now with the caveat that the chances may well go up with subsequent data runs.

After that, the cool front arriving on Sunday should cool us off for Monday and the 8-14 day guidance suggests cooler air moving into the state with temperatures running near to below normal.  Also, only scattered showers currently anticipated.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot