Friday, January 13th 2017, 4:52 am
The much-advertised icing event is underway across part of the state this morning and will remain, in some locations, for most of the weekend.
The Tulsa metro is currently in a freezing rain advisory with temps near or slightly below freezing for the morning hours with light drizzle or showers developing along the I-44 corridor.
Temps should warm slightly above freezing, possibly by only a degree or two, by noon or early afternoon ending the threat for freezing precipitation in the Tulsa metro until the evening commute into overnight when additional freezing temps will be possible. Locations to the north-northwest-west-and slightly southwest will remain in an ice storm warning from this morning through Sunday morning.
Locations along these areas may stay at or below freezing for the entire period resulting in significant freezing rain and icing potential. Freezing rain amounts in the metro will generally range from a trace to near 0.20” while locations in the warning areas could expect accumulations between .25 and near 0.75” of ice. A small area of higher total icing may be possible across far northwestern Osage and far western Pawnee counties.
Residents across southern Kansas may also experience total freezing rain from .25 to near .75 in some locations. Locations in the ice storm warning locations will have a higher possibility of experiencing some power outages and widespread impacts to travel. Locations in the Tulsa metro may experience some hazardous driving conditions on elevated surfaces this morning.
You should remain aware both today and tomorrow of the weather and any changes that may occur to the warning and advisory areas. The zone of freezing temperatures could easily shift slightly southeast during the morning hours.
Our big issue for the last few days has been pinpointing the exact location of the surface freezing line and the potential area of freezing temps as precipitation begins to fall. As precipitation begins this morning, some locations slightly southeast of the metro may be slightly above freezing. But this process will allow temps to drop (wet bulbing) to near or even below freezing. That’s why even locations slightly southeast of the metro should closely monitor the weather for the day.
Most data will bring only light precipitation across the corridor region this morning through midday before offering a break around noon with more later tonight into early evening. Additional precipitation will be likely later tonight into Saturday morning, with heavier precipitation possible in the ice storm location. Additional freezing rain advisories will more than likely be re-issued for the metro region Saturday morning through noon. Temps Saturday morning to midday should slowly move above freezing by midday to afternoon in the metro but will remain below freezing along northwest of the I-44 corridor region where the ice storm warning will continue to be in effect.
Late Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday morning, our dynamic storm system will rapidly bring some changes into most of the state (eastern sections for our discussion) with south winds returning and temperatures warming from the mid-30s into the 50s by afternoon. A strong surface area of low pressure will eject from the high plains of Texas into northwestern OK and eventually into southwestern Kansas by Sunday afternoon and evening. Warm and moist air will rapidly return across central and eastern OK ending the threat of any freezing precipitation by pre-dawn Sunday for most locations. A few spots across far north-central OK into northwestern Osage county and southern Kansas may still have some freezing rain potential early Sunday morning. After the early morning hours, the precipitation will end until a line of thunderstorm activity will advance across the state from the west to east by late Sunday night into pre-dawn Monday. Locations along and south of I-40 and east of I-35 could experience strong to near severe storms along with heavy rainfall. This system may not totally exit eastern OK until Monday morning. Some locations across eastern OK will have their heaviest rainfall threats as this system moves across the region.
The weather next week, at first glance, appears rather uneventful, but we’ll not concentrate much on that part of the forecast until our current system exits the state.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
Alan Crone
January 13th, 2017
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