WARN Team Tracking More Cold Air In NE Oklahoma

Temps will take a dive by the middle to the end of the week with another arctic air intrusion across the nation and most of the state of Oklahoma.   Precipitation chances will remain low for this system but not zero and more cold air is likely next weekend and the following week as well.

A rather weak front cleared the area yesterday with some folks experiencing some light showers and a few pockets of drizzle across eastern OK. It may not have seemed warm, but yesterday’s highs will qualify as the warmest temps we’ve seen in the past 9 days.  

Temperatures today will top out in the upper 40s north and a few lower 50s south with northeast winds around 8 mph this morning and east to southeast winds around 5 mph later this afternoon.  A few clouds will remain likely but we should have some sun-breaks today on occasion.  

Some data suggest a fast moving wave will brush the area later tonight along with the next surface front and we may see a few sprinkles or small showers between midnight into 5am across far NE Ok and northwestern Arkansas.  The low level moisture is very low but the timing of the wave would correspond to the highest potential humidity and a some very light precip would possible.  As this initial front passes the area we’ll see highs Tuesday in the mid-40s along with north winds at 8 to 15 mph with partly cloudy sky.

The next surge of much colder air will arrive Wednesday with morning lows in the mid-20s and highs only near 40. Thursday will be even colder with lows in the upper teens and lower 20s followed by highs in the mid to upper 30s. Friday the shallow air mass will begin quickly modifying and mixing out with lows in the lower 30s and highs nearing the mid-50s north and lower 60s south by the afternoon.

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Friday morning as relatively warm and moist air begins streaming northward some light drizzle will be possible early before some light showers are possible later in the day, mainly across far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.  A strong area of low pressure is likely to develop Friday morning to our northwest and this will increase our wind speeds from the south at 20 to near 35 mph.  

Another front will arrive either late Friday night or Saturday morning with temps falling from the lower 40s into the upper 30s.  A slight chance of showers will reside with the frontal intrusion across northeastern OK but the chance will remain very low.   A few storms may be possible across southeastern OK and far western Arkansas where low level moisture and instability is modeled to be higher.

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The data has some significant differences regarding Saturday with the timing of the system and therefore could have some differences regarding wintry precip across part of northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. Due to time constraints in the weather flow this morning, I refrain from the difference scenarios, but the EURO is suggesting some wintry precip will be possible while the GFS, would be dry. We have continued to keep a slight chance on the 7-day planner for this period and will adjust the forecast accordingly as the data resolves during the next few days.  

Regardless of the precip potential, the air mass looks mighty cold for the weekend.

The extended data for the following week continue to offer a pattern supporting periodic instructions of cold air into the nation and possibly into the state.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV