Tracking A Sunday System

Nice yet cool weather is underway this afternoon with mostly sunny and pleasant conditions across eastern OK.   Temps will drop quickly tonight into the 40s with the loss of sunlight, so grab the coat for those football games or if you’re heading out for a dinner and a movie.   Most of the weekend looks good but a strong system will arrive Sunday with rain chances and windy conditions. 

Our pattern will change soon with a return of southerly surface flow as low pressure develops to our northwest in advance of the next upper level system to impact the southern and central plains.   This storm will bring windy conditions back to the state Sunday along with a chance for scattered showers or storms during the day.   Low level moisture will attempt to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico and may reach northeastern TX or southeastern OK late Sunday night into Monday morning.   If this occurs, storms will develop, and few of them could be strong to severe.   The higher coverage of precipitation for this part of the system will remain to the southeast of the Tulsa metro late Sunday night or Monday morning but we’ll keep a mention in the forecast for the metro.   Again, during the day Sunday we’ll have some scattered showers or storms but the chance for a few stronger storms should be confined to southeastern OK late Sunday night into Monday.

Temperatures Saturday morning may be near or even slightly below freezing in some valley locations where clear sky, light wind, and dry air allow the readings to drop near the dew point.   This may also briefly result in some patchy freezing fog or light frost in some spots.   South winds will return Saturday from 10 to 18 mph by afternoon across eastern OK while the western half of the state will experience stronger winds beginning Saturday midday.   Highs Saturday should stay in the upper 50s or lower 60s for most of eastern OK.  

As the powerful upper level system ejects into the central plains Sunday into Monday, strong south winds will develop as a surface low pressure area across Eastern Colorado ejects northeast into the northern plains.   South winds Sunday may reach 30 to 40 mph during the afternoon and may result in wind advisories for part of western, central, and possibly part of northeastern OK.   Cloudy conditions will remain Sunday along with transitory showers on occasion.  The better chance for storms will arrive Sunday night into early Monday from south central OK into areas along and east of highway 69.  

The powerful storm system will eject into the northern plains Monday with strong west winds across most of the area until winds shift to the northwest by evening.   Highs Monday could reach the upper 60s near 70 before temps begin falling as a surface front moves across the area Monday night or Tuesday morning with colder air enter the state.   Highs Tuesday and Wednesday may stay in the lower 50s with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.   The data continue to diverge by the end of the week with most data supporting a developing cut-off low at the base of the main trough.   This feature would be positioned across the southern U.S and could provide some precipitation chances for next weekend with cold air near the state.   Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV